Published on: November 6, 2024, 04:22h.
Last updated on: November 6, 2024, 04:22h.
The race for the White House in 2028 is already in motion shortly after President-elect Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election against Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump is about to begin his second term on Monday, Jan. 20, 2025. Early bets are being placed on Kalshi on who will be the Republican and Democratic nominees and which party will win in four years.
On Kalshi, bettors believe Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is the frontrunner to represent the Democrats in 2028, with implied odds of 18%.
Harris’ decision not to choose Shapiro as her running mate in 2024 is seen as a factor that hurt her chances, especially after losing Pennsylvania by 2%.
Top Contenders
Following Shapiro is California Gov. Gavin Newsom, just 1% behind. Newsom was considered for President Biden’s replacement earlier this year but was passed over for Harris.
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is currently third on Kalshi with implied odds of 12%. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore is at 7% and former First Lady Michelle Obama is at 6%.
For the Republicans, Vice President-elect JD Vance is the early favorite to represent the party in 2028. Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., follows Vance at 15%. Ron DeSantis, Glenn Youngkin, and Josh Hawley complete the top five.
Vance has the highest implied odds at 59%. The Republicans hold a slight lead over the Democrats for the 2028 victory at 51-49%.
Betting on these long-term outcomes is limited, with $4,900 wagered on the Democratic nominee market and $12,000 on the GOP ticket. The 2028 outcome market has over $6,400 in bets.
New Administration
Elon Musk played a significant role in Trump’s reelection and is likely to be considered for a position in the upcoming administration.
Kalshi is offering bets on Musk’s nomination to the Trump Cabinet with current odds suggesting a 36% chance. Robert Kennedy Jr. is favored for a Cabinet position at 76%.
There is speculation that former U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who recently switched from Democrat to Republican, will also secure a role in the new administration, with odds at 59%.