Published on: September 11, 2024, 11:06h.
Updated on: September 11, 2024, 11:13h.
According to most reports, Vice President Kamala Harris emerged as the victor of Tuesday night’s presidential debate against former President Donald Trump. Her impressive performance didn’t come as a complete surprise, as she was the favored candidate on the political prediction platform Polymarket to win before the debate.
Polymarket, a decentralized trading platform that enables the buying and selling of shares related to political outcomes, had Trump as the favorite for the 2024 election before the debate. His shares were trading around 52 cents compared to Harris’ 46 cents. However, the tide has turned since then.
Harris displayed confidence on Tuesday evening at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia and communicated directly with the audience. She prompted her opponent to discuss the past, leading the billionaire to become visibly agitated at times while defending his record and attacking her and President Joe Biden.
Although Trump claimed it was his “best debate ever” on Tuesday, even supporters from his own party admitted he had a rough night. He seemed unprepared, reverted to outdated talking points that failed to resonate with independent voters or non-“MAGA Republicans,” and may have been too overconfident in facing his new Democratic opponent.
Whatever preparation the former casino magnate undertook was deemed ineffective by political bettors, who quickly shifted their election predictions in favor of Harris.
Harris, Trump in Tight Race
Trump has largely been the front-runner in 2024 election betting since his June debate with Biden, which led to the president announcing he wouldn’t seek re-election. Harris was chosen as the party’s candidate, and so far, it seems to be a successful decision.
As Trump continued to assert that the 2020 election was rigged and he was the rightful winner, the odds on Polymarket for the 2024 election shifted in favor of Harris. Another political betting platform, Betfair, also reported a similar trend.
As of noon on September 11, Polymarket had Trump’s shares at 50 cents and Harris’ at 49 cents. Betfair’s odds for 2024 imply a 51.2% chance of victory for Harris and even odds for Trump at 50%.
UK sportsbooks, where political betting is legal, have shortened the odds on Harris while lengthening those on Trump. William Hill now places Harris at 4/5 (-125), implying a 55.56% chance of winning. Trump stands at 10/11 (-110), indicating a 52.38% chance.
Before the debate, Trump was favored at -125 and Harris was the underdog at +110.
Do Debates Influence Outcomes?
While Trump is a well-known figure in the US, the debate on Tuesday provided Harris with a significant opportunity to connect with the American public after largely avoiding media appearances and staying out of the spotlight during her time as vice president.
Harris focused more on emotional appeals rather than specific policy details during the debate, while Trump came across as aggressive. His supporters argued it was a biased debate, as ABC News moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis fact-checked him repeatedly but didn’t do the same for Harris.
The odds, and likely the upcoming polls, indicate a shift in favor of Harris, but ultimately, the voters will have the final say on November 5.