Published on: September 27, 2024, 10:19h.
Last updated on: September 27, 2024, 10:21h.
The 2024 United States presidential election has attracted over $1 billion in bets, amidst the ongoing legal debate about the permissibility of political wagering and the regulatory oversight it should fall under.
Polymarket is a decentralized online prediction betting platform that enables users to place bets on various events, including politics and pop culture, utilizing cryptocurrencies.
In 2022, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) imposed a $1.4 million fine on Polymarket for failure to register as a Swap Execution Facility. U.S. players are consequently restricted from depositing funds on the platform.
Polymarket has gained traction as a leading election betting platform outside the U.S.
$1B in Bets
Polymarket’s 2024 market on the potential winner between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in the upcoming election surpassed $1 billion in bets.
As of September 27, Harris leads with implied odds of 51% compared to Trump’s 49%. Despite active trading, the odds have remained stable in the last 30 days.
Smarkets, another online wagering exchange not open to U.S. players, favors Harris over Trump at 52% to 48%. However, the Smarkets 2024 election market has attracted less than $10 million in bets.
PredictIt, a peer-to-peer political betting exchange accepting U.S. bettors, puts Harris ahead of Trump at 56% to 48%. PredictIt operates in a legal gray area in the U.S. following the CFTC’s intention to retract its “No-Action Relief” to the platform granted in 2014.
The 2014 letter ensured PredictIt could operate in the U.S. under the conditions of limiting each customer’s bet to $850 per contract and making trading insights public.
Federal Ruling Looms
The federal appeals court in Washington, D.C., is anticipated to deliver its verdict on whether Kalshi, a predictive betting market, can offer election contracts. A federal judge recently ruled in favor of Kalshi’s right to conduct events based on election outcomes.
U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb determined that the CFTC overstepped its boundaries by instructing Kalshi to halt political market operations. The CFTC challenged the ruling, and a three-judge appellate panel has heard arguments from both sides.
The three judges will soon announce their decision on whether Kalshi can resume its 2024 election markets.
U.K. Rules Lighter
U.S. laws on political betting contrast with the U.K. and European acceptance of election gambling, where William Hill, a prominent bookmaker, favors Harris at 4/5 (-125), with Trump at even money (+100).