Posted on: October 28, 2024, 09:54h.
Last updated on: October 28, 2024, 10:02h.
Speculation is increasing concerning the mysterious French “whale” who has wagered $45 million on Donald Trump to win the election on offshore platform Polymarket.
The trader has placed numerous bets through accounts named “Fredi9999,” “Theo4,” “Princess Caro,” and “Michie,” with varying amounts from $5 to tens of thousands. Fredi9999 has the largest position, betting $13.8 million on Trump against Harris.
The total bets represent 1% of the $2.4 billion wagered on Polymarket’s presidential election winner market.
‘Not a Manipulation Attempt’
Polymarket characterized the trader as having significant trading experience and a financial background. The platform believes the bettor is expressing personal views on the election, not attempting to manipulate the market.
The multiple bets are likely meant to control the price movement on Trump, maximizing potential winnings if the bet is successful, indicating a financial motive.
In the 2012 election leadup, an unidentified trader bet millions on Romney on Intrade, affecting the market significantly. Research later showed a potential attempt to influence beliefs and campaign outcomes.
A 2015 academic paper discussed these incidents, warning about the likelihood of election manipulation in the future.
The Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently highlighted election manipulation risks, despite legal challenges against prediction platforms.
More bettors are supporting Trump as he gains a lead on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, challenging previous claims of manipulation.
Interestingly, the average betting size for Harris is higher than for Trump, indicating increased support for the former president.
Trump’s odds are currently favorable on both platforms, showing increasing support for his potential victory.