Published on: October 31, 2024, 12:22h.
Last updated on: October 31, 2024, 12:51h.
With only five days remaining until the 2024 election, betting markets are indicating that former President Donald Trump is likely to win once the November 5 votes are counted. However, Vice President Kamala Harris’ odds have improved recently, raising questions about whether the Democratic candidate is experiencing a last-minute surge, or if bettors who initially favored Trump are now hedging their positions.
Polymarket, a peer-to-peer cryptocurrency-based predictions market, has seen $2.8 billion in bets on the 2024 presidential election, making it the leading betting exchange. Trump is currently the front-runner with implied odds of 64% as of noon EST on October 31, while Harris remains the underdog at 36%.
Harris’ odds have increased from 33.3% in the past 24 hours, while Trump’s odds have slightly decreased from 66.6%. Another exchange, Kalshi, has also experienced a similar shift in favor of Harris.
At Kalshi, bettors give Trump a 59% chance of winning compared to Harris at 41%. Just two days ago, Trump was at 65%.
Harris Momentum
It’s unclear whether recent bettors are betting big on Harris to improve her odds or if Trump bettors are hedging their positions to ensure a win or limit potential losses if Harris wins.
Hedging involves betting on the opposite outcome of the original wager once the likelihood of the initial bet winning increases. While hedging can secure a net win, it may reduce profits from the original bet if it is successful.
At BetMGM in Ontario, where oddsmakers are allowed to take action on political outcomes, Trump is a significant favorite at -200 (1/2, implied odds 66.6%), while Harris is the underdog at +160 (8/5, 38.5%).
Do Foreign Bettors Know US Politics?
Kalshi’s 2024 election betting market launched in September following a federal appeals court decision allowing the online wagering exchange to offer election markets. This decision solidified wagering exchanges’ ability to provide election contracts in a peer-to-peer format. Legal sportsbooks in the US are still prohibited from accepting traditional sports bets on political outcomes.
Due to its late entry, Kalshi has seen $123.8 million in trades for the 2024 presidential election, significantly less than the amount wagered on Polymarket. Polymarket, although with 22 times more action, does not allow US bettors to participate.
Polymarket banned US bettors after allegations of illegal trading services by the CFTC in early 2022. Despite this, tech-savvy users can still access the platform through a VPN, but the majority of the $2.8 billion bet likely comes from traders outside the US. A similar trend is observed in Canada, where sportsbooks face higher liabilities regarding Trump.
The final decision on the election outcome will be made by US citizens next week.