Posted on: November 26, 2024, 03:46h.
Last updated on: November 26, 2024, 03:46h.
Thanksgiving and football make for the perfect American pairing. While sports betting is not exclusive to the US, many American bettors will indulge in football betting alongside their Thanksgiving festivities this week.
A recent report by Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon predicts that US bettors will wager $4.5 billion this week in regulated markets. This forecast marks an 11% year-over-year growth during the Thanksgiving Week period from Nov. 25 to Dec. 1. While basketball and other sports will contribute, football, particularly the NFL, will drive the majority of the activity.
Football is the most popular sport to bet on in the US, and this Thanksgiving, a record number of states and Washington, DC allow some form of sports betting. Beynon anticipates a 15% surge in betting volumes compared to last year, with the NFL schedule catering to bettors with three Thanksgiving games and a Black Friday matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Las Vegas Raiders.
College football will also play a role, with games scheduled throughout the week, including on Thanksgiving and the following day.
Key Operators to Watch During Thanksgiving Football
The increased betting activity during Thanksgiving Week will benefit the gaming industry overall, but individual operators may see varying levels of success.
While Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT) and DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) continue to lead in market share, Beynon sees potential for smaller competitors to gain traction during Thanksgiving Week. He highlights Bally’s (NYSE: BALY), Caesars Sportsbook, and Rush Street Interactive (NYSE: RSI) as likely beneficiaries of increased betting activity.
Notably, BetMGM has experienced above-average hold rates of 11%+ in recent weeks, indicating potential upside in the current trend,” noted Beynon.
Additionally, recent market data from New York suggests that DraftKings and Caesars Sportsbook are making strides in gaining market share. Thanksgiving games attract considerable betting action, with each of the day’s matchups resembling primetime events like “Monday Night Football,” enticing bettors to place wagers. Macquarie’s findings indicate that primetime games during the NFL’s Week 12 accounted for 37% of bets and 10% of overall betting volume.
Positive Outlook for Betting Stocks
Beynon is bullish on equities related to sports betting, issuing “outperform” ratings for Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR), DraftKings, Penn Entertainment (NASDAQ: PENN), and Rush Street Interactive.
He favors operators with online gaming exposure, particularly in sports betting, due to their higher gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth potential.
“Online gaming stands out for two key reasons: 1) it does not rely on the economy for double-digit growth, and 2) it consistently surpasses market expectations. We anticipate a 23% GGR growth in Q4 (+23% online sports betting, +25% iGaming), and a year-over-year GGR increase of 18% in 2025,” concluded Beynon.