Published on: January 6, 2025, 10:40h.

Last updated on: January 6, 2025, 10:40h.

Justin Trudeau’s announcement regarding stepping down as Prime Minister of Canada has sparked a flurry of activity on the Canadian political scene as we head into 2025.

Trump Impact

Trudeau’s announcement follows the resignation of his finance minister Chrystia Freeland just before Christmas, making it the latest development in a period of political turmoil. There were disagreements between Trudeau and Freeland regarding Liberal government economic policies, particularly in dealing with the 25% tariff threats from incoming U.S President Donald Trump as it relates to border security.

Minority Government Hangs By a Thread

In her resignation on X Dec. 16, Freeland expressed the challenges faced by Canada due to aggressive economic nationalism and the threat of tariffs by the incoming U.S administration.

Trudeau’s approval ratings are at a record low, with calls for his resignation coming from different Liberal caucuses. The Conservative party is leading in the polls and projected to form a majority government.

Carney a Frontrunner to Replace Trudeau

The speculation on who will replace Trudeau as the leader of the Liberal party and lead into the next election is high. Names like Mark Carney, Freeland, Melanie Joly, and Dominic LeBlanc are being considered. Carney, a former banker, and economist could bring a fresh perspective to Liberal economic policies.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets indicate the likelihood of a Canadian election being called by April, Pierre Poilievre becoming the next Prime Minister of Canada, and the chances of a no confidence motion against Trudeau passing in 2024.