Published on: September 24, 2025, 12:03h.
Updated on: September 24, 2025, 12:03h.
- Analysts predict a $2.6 billion processing volume for September
- Robinhood customers contribute approximately 35% of Kalshi’s daily trading volume
Robinhood Markets’ (NASDAQ: HOOD) foray into football prediction markets is already yielding positive outcomes for both the company and its investors.
Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley recently reported that prediction markets launched by Robinhood — in collaboration with Kalshi — have achieved a remarkable transaction volume of $2.6 billion so far this month, significantly surpassing the brokerage’s previous monthly high. Moley anticipates that if September’s trend continues, prediction markets could enhance Robinhood’s annual revenue by up to $200 million.
“Prediction markets present a tremendous growth potential for Robinhood,” said the analyst, who maintained an “overweight” rating and raised his price target for the stock from $120 to $140.
Currently, Robinhood does not disclose its monthly volumes for prediction markets, so analyst forecasts are primarily based on estimations and insights from company management. In the second quarter, the trading platform saw over a billion yes/no contracts traded. Given that football is the most popular sport for wagering in the U.S., it’s reasonable to assume this figure will surge in the upcoming quarter. Robinhood announced in August its intention to release yes/no contracts focused on college football and the NFL.
Robinhood’s Significant Role in Kalshi’s Success
Earlier this year, Robinhood announced its collaboration with Kalshi for Super Bowl event contracts, a project delayed due to an inquiry from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Despite this, the partnership has continued to develop successfully.
According to Moley’s analysis of Robinhood’s event contract volumes from the second quarter, the brokerage firm represented 27% of Kalshi’s overall trading during that period. Moreover, it’s estimated that Robinhood’s clients account for between 25% to 35% of Kalshi’s daily trading volume.
“If Kalshi’s projected volume for the third quarter of 2025 is around 8,500 million contracts, and Robinhood captures a 30% share, the analyst forecasts approximately 2,550 million contracts for Robinhood, translating to $25.5 million in revenue. This represents a quarterly run rate exceeding $100 million, including about $17.5 million expected for September,” reports Benzinga.
Per their agreement, both Kalshi and Robinhood equally divide the $0.02 fee per contract paid by traders. For the current quarter, Moley anticipates a significant 150% year-over-year growth in Robinhood’s prediction market volumes.
Legal Challenges Linked to Prediction Markets
Due to its venture into prediction markets, Robinhood, alongside Kalshi, is facing legal challenges in various states, including Massachusetts, Nevada, and New Jersey. Recently, Robinhood filed a lawsuit against the Massachusetts attorney general and the state’s gaming authority after the state litigated against Kalshi, claiming that state gaming regulations override the Commodities Exchange Act (CEA).
Additionally, Robinhood is involved as a co-defendant in a lawsuit against Kalshi brought forth by several tribal gaming organizations in California, asserting that Kalshi and affiliated parties such as Robinhood are in violation of the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA). The resolution of these legal matters may take considerable time.
“A quick and definitive conclusion to this ongoing litigation seems improbable. The financial implications are significant for both parties involved. Given the ongoing legal disputes, Congress may need to clarify the language and intent of the CEA concerning U.S. gaming and financial markets,” according to Snell & Wilmer.