Published on: October 27, 2025, 02:17h.
Updated on: October 27, 2025, 02:29h.
- Analyst highlights potential of real estate assets as “transformative” for investors
- Comments on Golden Entertainment’s stock being undervalued compared to competitors
This year, Golden Entertainment (NASDAQ: GDEN) has experienced almost a 30% decline in its stock price. However, the company is considered undervalued in comparison to its industry counterparts and possesses real estate assets that could unlock substantial value if sold.
Texas Capital analyst David Bain has recently downgraded his earnings projections for Golden Entertainment’s third quarter and full-year EBITDA. Nevertheless, he reaffirmed a “buy” recommendation with a price target of $39, suggesting a potential upside of around 77% from current market levels.
“We believe GDEN’s Nevada-focused portfolio, particularly on the Strip and among locals, presents more significant long-term growth opportunities compared to its geographically varied regional rivals. Moreover, GDEN’s low debt levels, predictable cash flow, and real estate holdings create substantial upside potential for stock,” Bain explains.
Golden operates casinos in various locations such as Las Vegas, Laughlin, and Pahrump. With over 70 gaming establishments concentrated primarily in the Las Vegas Valley, the company’s growth is closely linked to the Las Vegas local market.
Potential of Golden Entertainment’s Real Estate to Boost Stock Prices
The company’s real estate assets, particularly surrounding The Strat and the nine acres of undeveloped land adjacent to that casino, have been identified as key opportunities for enhancing shareholder value.
Owning the real estate where its casinos are located, along with the undeveloped land near the Las Vegas Strip, could be factors attracting the attention of prominent investors, including one who recently adopted an activist role.
Bain’s assessment that an action regarding its property holdings could be “transformative” isn’t unfounded; the company’s current market capitalization of $576.53 million likely underrepresents the inherent value of its real estate. Selling the aforementioned land and The Strat’s property could potentially yield proceeds that are double its market cap.
However, if the company were to engage in a sale-leaseback arrangement involving The Strat, it would incur long-term liabilities through ongoing rent payments in exchange for immediate cash influx.
The Case for Golden Shareholder Rewards and Their Impact on Stock Value
Bain notes that Golden Entertainment’s stock is reasonably priced compared to its rivals, trading at roughly a 20% discount based on projected 2026 enterprise value/EBITDA metrics.
This discount may indicate that the market is not accurately valuing the company’s property assets within the stock price and highlights a lack of appreciation for Golden’s low debt levels and robust financial standings, which support shareholder returns.
“GDEN offers a dividend yield of around 4%, combined with stock buybacks that reduced its outstanding free float by 14% last year. This strategy effectively rewards investors as they anticipate potential re-evaluation of valuation, better-than-expected earnings, or other significant growth opportunities,” Bain concludes.