Published on: November 10, 2025, 01:49h.
Updated on: November 10, 2025, 01:49h.
- Axis Research poll yields predictably favorable results
- Survey indicates strong support for prediction markets and calls for federal regulation
- Poll results emerge amidst increasing skepticism toward sports betting
A recent survey commissioned by Kalshi and executed by Axis Research reveals that 89% of American voters favor prediction markets in their existing format. Notably, 54% of respondents, even those who do not engage in this form of investing or wagering, assert that individuals should have the autonomy to choose for themselves.
The Axis survey gathered responses from 1,219 U.S. voters between September 18 and September 23. Skeptics might question the findings, arguing that the backing by a notable entity in the prediction market space could skew results favorably. Given the variety of legal challenges Kalshi faces at the state level, it’s unsurprising that a vast majority of respondents advocate for federal regulation of event contract exchanges.
“A considerable majority (89%) of voters categorize the purchase of stocks, mutual funds, and participation in commodity markets as ‘financial investment’ rather than ‘gambling’ (11%),” states Kalshi. “Consequently, most individuals (79%) believe that these activities should fall under the regulation of the Federal Government rather than State Gaming Commissions (21%).”
Recently, Kalshi was confronted with a class action lawsuit in New York, alleging that its platform resembles illegal gambling. On October 24, the New York State Gaming Commission issued a letter to Kalshi, asserting that the company is facilitating unapproved wagering. Additionally, local legislators proposed a bill intending to prohibit Kalshi from offering various financial and sports derivatives.
Kalshi Poll Indicates Clear Distinctions
With the commencement of the 2025 football season, transaction volumes on prediction markets like Kalshi have surged as more sports event contracts are introduced. This has incited debates on social media about the proportion of prediction market transactions linked to sports, prompting critics to equate prediction markets to disguised sportsbooks.
Kalshi asserts that voters clearly differentiate between event contracts and traditional sports bets, with 60% of respondents in the Axis survey stating that creating yes/no derivatives necessitates analysis equivalent to that involved in selecting securities—contrasting with “chance-based gambling.”
“Prediction markets integrate insights from thousands to produce real-time probabilities of sports outcomes, which should be viewed as analytical work rather than gambling (63%). Moreover, these markets generate public benefits by providing forecasts useful for media, leagues, and team owners (59%).”
The poll also highlights that around two-thirds of participants perceive state-level initiatives to regulate prediction markets as attempts to enhance tax revenues and suppress innovation, with respondents believing that stricter regulations would adversely impact investors and bettors.
Survey Conducted Amid Changing Attitudes Toward Sports Betting
The debate over whether prediction markets are effectively sportsbooks is likely to persist, but the timing of the Kalshi survey coincides with a growing sense of skepticism regarding sports betting—an attitude seemingly propelled by recent controversies in U.S. professional sports.
A recent YouGov poll reveals that 44% of Americans and 31% of self-identified sports bettors feel that legalized wagering has a negative impact on sports. Only 24% of bettors and 9% of the general population hold an opposing view.
“By combining responses from those who said often, sometimes, or rarely, over four-fifths of U.S. sports bettors suspect that athletes alter their performance due to sports betting,” remarks YouGov. “This suggests that individuals more engaged in sports betting harbor greater doubts about the integrity of professional sports.”