Published on: November 26, 2025, 02:07h.
Updated on: November 26, 2025, 02:07h.
- Robinhood reveals plans for its own prediction market platform
- This could pose challenges for partner Kalshi
- Prediction markets becoming one of Robinhood’s rapidly expanding sectors
This Thanksgiving week brought a shocking announcement. On Tuesday, Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) made waves in the prediction markets space with its decision to pursue an independent approach.
The company announced it will be establishing a futures and derivatives exchange alongside a clearinghouse to enhance its presence in the prediction markets. This segment has emerged as one of its highest-growth areas. Renowned market-making firm Susquehanna International Group will act as the initial liquidity provider, with additional market makers anticipated to join soon.
The initiative will hasten service delivery by acquiring MIAXdx, a CFTC-licensed Designated Contract Market (DCM), Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO), and Swap Execution Facility (SEF). It is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Miami International Holdings, Inc. (MIAX®) (NYSE: MIAX). MIAX will maintain a strategic investment with a 10% equity stake in the exchange,” stated a press release.
Simply put, Robinhood is buying MIAXdx to secure the necessary licenses to operate prediction markets in the United States—a strategy that competitors often employ to expedite market entry rather than waiting for regulatory approvals.
Robinhood’s Move May Adversely Affect Kalshi
Robinhood’s investors responded positively, as indicated by an almost 11% stock rise in after-hours trading. Conversely, investors who recently boosted Kalshi’s valuation to unprecedented levels likely aren’t pleased with Robinhood’s announcement.
Estimates suggest Robinhood accounts for 25% to 35% of Kalshi’s daily trading volume, and both firms have historically benefitted from a symbiotic provider/distributor relationship. Many in the prediction markets community believed this arrangement was mutually beneficial and stable.
Despite Robinhood processing $2.3 billion in event contract trades during Q3—more than double the volume from the June quarter—enthusiasts in the “Kalshi bros” group maintained that Robinhood wouldn’t go solo in the prediction markets.
This news comes shortly after reports indicated Kalshi successfully raised $1 billion in funding, pushing its valuation up to $11 billion—more than double its worth just a month ago. Seen another way, investors who got involved with Kalshi at both $5 billion and $11 billion valuations probably overlooked the possibility of Robinhood pursuing an independent route in the prediction markets, despite the apparent risks.
Anticipating Robinhood’s Impact in Prediction Markets
With its advanced technological capabilities and a growing customer base enthusiastic about wagering and prediction markets, Robinhood is poised to become a leading player in the event contracts sector.
“Prediction Markets have rapidly emerged as one of Robinhood’s fastest-growing product lines by revenue. Just one year after launch, over 9 billion contracts have been traded by upwards of 1 million Robinhood users,” stated the company. “The introduction of a robust, institutional-grade exchange will offer consumers more options. It will also allow us to accelerate our offerings, delivering more contracts and services to traders.”
Analysts predict that the US prediction markets landscape may evolve into a competitive environment featuring five prominent players: DraftKings, FanDuel, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood.