Published on: December 15, 2025, 05:11h.
Updated on: December 15, 2025, 05:11h.
- Robinhood is set to launch its prediction market platform during an investor event on December 16.
- The company may showcase a reduced reliance on Kalshi.
- An analyst notes the potential emergence of competitive threats to sportsbook operators.
This upcoming Tuesday, Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) will host “Robinhood Presents: YES/NO,” an event where the brokerage will reveal its prediction markets platform. An analyst suggests this could significantly impact the sports betting sector.
Julie Hoover, an analyst from Bank of America who follows Robinhood, mentioned in a client note today that one of the key announcements during the December 16 event might indicate the brokerage’s reduced reliance on Kalshi for event contracts.
This is a possibility worth noting, although it remains unconfirmed. Robinhood previously announced a partnership with Susquehanna International Group to develop an organic prediction markets platform. The trading application powerhouse asserts it will still maintain ties with Kalshi.
Previously, Robinhood featured Kalshi event contracts on its platform, with an economic split between the two companies. However, Kalshi constituted 25% to 35% of Robinhood’s volume, and given that prediction markets are one of its fastest-growing areas, the company may choose to reduce its involvement with Kalshi.
Potential Implications for DraftKings and FanDuel
Bank of America’s Hoover emphasizes that while current sentiment in the sports betting market suggests negative news for Kalshi may be beneficial for established brands, this view might be shortsighted.
“From our discussions, it appears investors interested in online sports betting perceive any setbacks for Kalshi as favorable for OSB operators. However, we believe that a tech giant like HOOD increasing its stake in this arena represents a competitive threat to DraftKings and FanDuel,” observes the analyst.
DraftKings and FanDuel, the leading sportsbook operators in the US, are already entering the prediction markets territory. FanDuel is ahead, while DraftKings is expected to launch a similar offering soon.
This indicates that these sports betting titans are not ignoring the surging prediction markets challenge, yet Hoover asserts that Robinhood’s entry into this space could radically shift the betting landscape. With a greater market valuation than any publicly traded gaming company and nearly $23 billion in liquid assets, Robinhood possesses the capacity to shake up the sports betting sector through its prediction market initiatives.
Fee Structures Under Scrutiny
Another focal point during the Robinhood prediction markets event will be the competitiveness of its fee structures compared to Kalshi and Polymarket. Within the realm of yes/no contracts, fee compression is a significant issue, particularly as sportsbook operators generally do not impose per-bet fees outside Illinois. Maintaining low fees for prediction exchanges is vital, especially since the industry is anticipated to be less promotion-driven than traditional sports betting.
Even with the prospect of a pricing war over event contract fees, market analysts believe that prediction markets are on track for substantial revenue growth in the coming years.
As the prediction markets sector evolves, the feasibility of lowering fees might improve if more institutional players engage in this market. Analysts view prediction markets as poised for increased participation from professional investors, as yes/no derivatives offer hedging opportunities against various legal, macroeconomic, and regulatory risks.