Kalshi, the operator of a prediction market, has decided to halt its plans for trading on the entry or exit of individual NCAA athletes from the college sports transfer portal, in light of rapid opposition from the NCAA and widespread criticism within both the sports and gambling sectors.
The company had submitted a proposal to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to self-certify a set of event contracts related to transfer portal activities, as outlined in regulatory documents. These contracts were set to launch on December 17, allowing users to speculate on the transfer decisions made by individual student-athletes.
The proposal faced immediate backlash from the NCAA, which expressed that markets based on athletes’ transfer decisions would create undue pressure on players and compromise the integrity of college sports.
NCAA President Charlie Baker labeled the idea “absolutely unacceptable,” cautioning that it could lead to increased harassment and abuse towards student-athletes. “It’s already concerning that student-athletes endure harassment due to bets on game performances,” Baker wrote on X. “Their futures and choices should not be subject to speculation, particularly in an unregulated environment that lacks the standards of legitimate sports betting operators.”
The @NCAA strongly opposes college sports prediction markets. It is already troubling that student-athletes face harassment for lost bets on their game performance, now Kalshi intends to facilitate betting on their transfer choices — this is completely unacceptable…
— Charlie Baker (@CharlieBakerMA) December 18, 2025
In response to the swift criticism, Kalshi announced that it would halt the contracts for the time being. The company released a statement through ESPN correspondent David Payne Purdum, noting that while it often self-certifies markets, not all are subsequently launched.
“We regularly self-certify markets that do not end up being listed. Despite our competitors having these markets active, we currently have no plans to launch these contracts,” Kalshi stated.
As stated in the CFTC filing, the proposed contracts would determine outcomes based on players’ public actions regarding entry into or exit from the NCAA transfer portal within a specified timeline. Valid sources included official NCAA transfer portal information, announcements from school athletic departments, authenticated social media statements, and coverage from national sports outlets. Kalshi clarified that public declarations from players would serve as legitimate signals, while mere media speculation would not be counted.
Furthermore, Kalshi indicated that it would ban trading activities by players, coaches, athletic department personnel, agents, and immediate family members, emphasizing its commitment to integrity and the prevention of exploitation.
This incident has reignited discussions regarding the regulatory framework governing prediction markets, which currently have the capacity to self-certify contracts without prior approval from the CFTC, and are subject to regulatory actions primarily if the agency raises objections. This setup has permitted companies like Kalshi to introduce contracts similar to conventional sports betting, despite ongoing debates among state and federal authorities over their legal status.
The reaction to Kalshi’s filing was largely negative across social media platforms, including X and Reddit, with critics voicing concerns about insider information, athlete welfare, and the potential for exploitation. Sports law expert Darren Adam Heitner cautioned that this proposal could lead to significant complications, stating: “This could become very messy.”