Published on: December 30, 2025, 11:29h.
Updated on: December 30, 2025, 11:36h.
- Clear Street forecasts that prediction market growth will favor Circle and Coinbase
- Research predicts the total addressable market could hit $14 billion by 2030, with annual trading volume soaring to $1.2 trillion
- Circle’s stablecoin presence seen as essential for prediction market growth
Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) and Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) may emerge as significant beneficiaries as prediction markets approach an annual trading volume of $1.2 trillion.
This perspective comes from Clear Street, which estimates that the total addressable market for binary prediction exchanges may reach $14 billion by 2030, with annual trading volume expected to hit $1.2 trillion. This is significantly higher than the projected $440 million in revenue and $47 billion in volume anticipated for this year.
The research firm warns that short-term forecasts for prediction markets might be overly optimistic, potentially inflating expectations, but longer-term predictions could be conservative as they may overlook the value generated by historical and real-time data from event contract exchanges.
Clear Street also posits that operators in the prediction market may evolve into big data and analytics providers over time—an evolution that could broaden their total addressable market and encourage more institutional participants to engage with event contracts.
2026: A Pivotal Year for Prediction Markets
According to Clear Street analyst Owen Lau, 2026 is set to be a “pivotal year” for prediction markets, marked by heightened competition and a surge in revenue.
Lau emphasizes that Circle and Coinbase are well-positioned to lead in the prediction market landscape, thanks to their robust compliance capabilities, established infrastructure, and essential settlement services. Their existing, extensive customer base also shows interest in prediction markets.
In particular, Circle is the issuer of USDC, the second-largest stablecoin, only surpassed by Tether. Stablecoins like USDC are already widely adopted on event contract platforms, providing efficiency in funding accounts and settling contracts.
Lau highlights that Circle’s liquidity framework and treasury solutions are well-suited to scale alongside the growth of prediction markets.
Coinbase: A Potential Leader in Prediction Markets
Clear Street has identified Coinbase as one of its top fintech recommendations for 2026. The company recently announced its entry into the prediction market space through a partnership with Kalshi, further solidified by its acquisition of The Clearing Company.
Clear Street positions Coinbase as a definitive leader under the anticipated evolution toward analytics/data, as the brokerage firm possesses the necessary compliance expertise, user base, and technology to harness this transformation.
In its 2026 Crypto Market Outlook, Coinbase noted that a “transformative period” is emerging for prediction markets. While it did not delve deeply into a company-specific analytics scenario, it acknowledged that as the yes/no market grows, the risk of fragmentation increases, which may drive demand for curated aggregation services.