Published on: January 14, 2026, 05:16h.
Last revised on: January 14, 2026, 05:16h.
- Brokerage firm operates the well-known ForecastEx prediction market.
- Firm anticipates another surge prompted by the 2026 midterm elections.
Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ: IBKR), the entity behind the ForecastEx prediction market, anticipates that the upcoming 2026 midterm elections will boost activity in event contracts.
In a discussion with Reuters, Chairman Thomas Peterffy expressed that the current slate of elections for the House, Senate, and several governors could trigger notable increases in trading volume for political event contracts. This view is supported by the observation that the 2024 presidential election significantly popularized prediction markets in both investing and betting circles. Peterffy holds an optimistic perspective on the future of prediction markets, even as competition in the sector grows.
More individuals are entering this market, and there appear to be no significant barriers. The potential applications are nearly endless, as we constantly encounter questions about future outcomes. I am extremely optimistic about this sector, especially with elections approaching this year,” he told Reuters.
Interactive Brokers introduced political event contracts in September 2024 and has a solid history with economic and financial yes/no derivatives; however, the firm has chosen to avoid sports event contracts, which seem to attract scrutiny within the industry.
Political Engagement in Prediction Markets
While sports dominate the transaction volume on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, the 2024 presidential election demonstrated that bettors and traders are equally engaged with political events — a sentiment reinforced by the 2025 New York City mayoral race.
Concerning the anticipated volume from the 2026 midterms, both ForecastEx and its competitors could see gains if numerous races become fiercely competitive, although “numerous” is subjective. The Cook Political Report has currently classified 17 House races as “toss ups,” with another 29 leaning toward one party or the other. Additionally, four Senate races — two for each party — are considered toss ups, along with five gubernatorial races, including that of Nevada.
Close contests could prove advantageous for ForecastEx, which Peterffy regards as a potential growth avenue for Interactive Brokers, both internally and externally.
“We are concentrating on onboarding additional broker partners, while also encouraging our existing Interactive Brokers direct clients to engage more frequently with forecast contracts,” he stated during the third-quarter earnings call in response to an analyst query.
ForecastEx: A Recognized Name in Prediction Markets
ForecastEx is classified as a Designated Contract Market (DCM), which is the required designation for firms to issue exchange-listed derivatives, including yes/no event contracts, within the United States. The event contracts offered by ForecastEx are available on both Interactive Brokers and Robinhood Markets.
The platform currently lists a single sports event contract but boasts a wide array of derivatives related to the 2026 primaries and general elections, as well as a comprehensive selection of event contracts focused on economic data, environmental issues, and financial assets like Bitcoin, foreign currencies, and equity indexes.