Published on: January 27, 2026, at 01:17h.
Updated on: January 27, 2026, at 01:24h.
- Challenges for Operators with Hold Comparisons
- This year’s matchup may lead to a reduced handle
- Prediction markets are adding pressure as well
Super Bowl LX, the 60th annual showdown in the NFL, is scheduled for Sunday, February 8. However, it may not generate the excitement that sportsbook operators and certain investors are anticipating.
According to a report by Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender, legal Super Bowl betting is expected to reach $1.5 billion this year, reflecting a 2% decrease from last year, even with Missouri joining the list of states permitting online sports betting. Bender highlighted that following a year of high-hold betting in the previous Super Bowl, operators face challenging comparisons this year.
Bender notes, “The comparisons will be challenging across the industry, given that gaming operators had an average hold of around 17% last year, significantly exceeding one standard deviation.”
However, for investors, the positive aspect is that Missouri is the sole new state, which suggests a probable decline in the promotional expenses associated with Super Bowl betting on a yearly basis, as indicated by the analyst.
Influence of Storylines on Super Bowl Betting
The previous Super Bowl featured captivating narratives, such as Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid competing against his former team and the romantic storyline involving Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift, which attracted the attention of casual fans and recreational gamblers alike.
This year’s event, however, lacks the allure and does not include star athletes like Patrick Mahomes from the Chiefs or Saquon Barkley from the Eagles. While this does not suggest that Super Bowl LX will be uncompetitive or devoid of entertainment value, Bender mentions that these factors could potentially impact betting volumes for the most wagered sporting event in the United States.
Nonetheless, Super Bowl LX is anticipated to drive a surge in mobile sports betting application downloads and foster significant customer acquisition for gaming companies.
Bender explains, “Players gained during this time may not be of the highest caliber, but the 523K downloads recorded on Super Bowl Sunday last year represented a 45% increase over any other day in 2025.”
The Impact of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are proving to be an unpredictable element for Super Bowl bets this year, as Super Bowl LX marks the first time that NFL’s flagship event has broad-based sports menus available through yes/no exchanges.
Bender concludes, “The impressive volume seen in prediction markets is putting additional pressure on the legal market. Overall, challenging hold comparisons alongside a year-over-year decline in handle suggest that gaming margins will likely remain ‘in line’ and could imply a drop in gaming revenue of approximately 35% for the Super Bowl.”