Published on: February 6, 2026, 12:49h.
Updated on: February 6, 2026, 12:49h.
- Analyst increases MGM price target driven by Las Vegas market stability
- Potential catalysts for 2026 include BetMGM and expansion in Japan
- Analyst optimistic about ongoing capital distribution
After a tumultuous week that saw both unintended and official disclosures of its Q4 and full-year 2025 performance, MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) saw an uptick in trading on Friday, aided by a price target adjustment from a prominent analyst.
During midday trading, MGM’s stock rose by over 2%, positioning it for a 9.50% gain over the week after Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon reaffirmed an “outperform” rating while elevating the price target from $45 to $46. This new estimate indicates more than a 24% upside from the current share price. The analyst cited positive trends in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and restructuring costs (EBITDAR) on the Las Vegas Strip, among additional factors.
The fourth-quarter EBITDAR was $735 million (-4% year-over-year), exceeding consensus expectations by 4%. This represents a marked improvement from the second and third quarters, bolstered by project completions at MGM Grand, an advantageous convention schedule, and above-average gaming hold,” Beynon noted. MGM anticipates stabilization in the Vegas market and forecasts year-on-year growth for 2026, noting easing comparisons following a challenging first quarter. Additionally, capital projects in Vegas are now completed, group bookings have risen in the mid-single digits, and overall arena events maintain balance.
MGM stands as the dominant operator on the Strip, managing 36,645 hotel rooms, significantly outpacing Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR), which has 23,150 rooms, according to Macquarie’s data.
Digital Ventures and Diversification Driving MGM Forward
While its status as the leading operator on the Strip is well-known, MGM also enjoys a significant diversification that some investors might overlook amid the Las Vegas news.
The operator’s diversification strategy includes a 56% stake in MGM China, which reported strong performance in the fourth quarter, along with its 50% share in BetMGM. That iGaming and online sports betting platform announced this week that 2025 marked its first profitable year and is projected to achieve $500 million in EBITDA by 2027.
“Diversification continues to be a significant advantage for MGM (58% Las Vegas, 25% regional markets, 11% Macau, and 6% digital), along with its premium asset portfolio. We anticipate several catalysts in 2026, particularly regarding BetMGM’s valuation,” added Beynon.
The future of BetMGM’s valuation is yet to unfold, but as the company thrives, speculation may rise regarding MGM’s potential move to fully acquire Entain out of their joint venture or possibly reconsider a takeover of the UK-based partner.
MGM’s Financial Stability Supports Capital Distribution Plans
MGM has established itself as a leader in share buybacks, a trend that persisted throughout last year. In the fourth quarter alone, the gaming company repurchased 15 million shares, reaching a total of 37.5 million for 2025. Over the past five years, the operator of Bellagio has lowered its outstanding shares by approximately 48%. Beynon believes MGM’s robust balance sheet allows for continued buybacks.
“We view its strong balance sheet, supportive shareholder base, and ambition to be a global entertainment leader as significant advantages,” the analyst concluded.