Published on: February 10, 2026, 07:13h.
Updated on: February 10, 2026, 07:13h.
- Kalshi halts Cardi B halftime predictions amid Super Bowl uncertainties
- Traders lodge a complaint with the CFTC, citing unfair and arbitrary settlement practices
- Case mirrors prior invasion disputes in geopolitical prediction sectors
Today, Kalshi’s CEO Tarek Mansour announced that the prediction platform surpassed $1 billion in trading volume this Super Bowl Sunday, an impressive increase from the previous year. A significant portion of this number came from non-game markets, with over $100 million traded specifically on the opening song of the halftime show.
However, traders who wagered $4.4 million on whether Cardi B would “perform” during the show were not sharing Mansour’s enthusiasm. Some have filed an official complaint with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the governing body overseeing Kalshi, arguing that there were unfair settlement practices.
The controversy arose because “Big Cardi” did make an appearance during Bad Bunny’s halftime show. She danced, lip-synced, and played to the camera in a manner that most observers would categorize as “performing,” despite not being front and center.
Defining Performance
Kalshi, on the other hand, has rules which state that “dancing or appearing on stage without singing/playing instruments” does not qualify as a performance or cameo.
Kalshi representative Elisabeth Diana acknowledged to Business Insider that the circumstances were unclear. She noted the South Bronx artist was “at the very least mouthing the lyrics as she danced,” but concluded, it remained “impossible to determine definitively if she was singing.”
Thus, instead of making a binary decision, Kalshi opted to freeze the market and settled it at a weighted price.
In contrast, Polymarket had no qualms in categorizing Cardi’s actions as a legitimate “performance” and proceeded to pay out accordingly.
To be fair, Kalshi did not profit from its settlement decisions since it charges transaction fees on trades rather than taking a percentage of losing bets like traditional sportsbooks.
The CFTC complaint criticizes the prediction market’s use of a rule that grants it unilateral power to settle contracts when ambiguities arise that are not covered by its terms. This limited traders from benefitting from accurate predictions and caused them financial losses, according to the complaint.
The filing further argues that Kalshi didn’t establish clear, objective guidelines for determining what a “performance” entails.
Addressing Invasion Definitions
Platforms such as Polymarket also operated markets regarding a potential US invasion of Venezuela. Following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, many participants anticipated a “Yes” payout.
However, Polymarket concluded that the operation did not meet the contract’s criteria for an invasion, leaving over $10 million in bets unresolved or lost.
While terms like “invasion” and “performance” might be subjective, it presents a challenge prediction platforms must navigate if they are to facilitate markets that cover everything from entertainment phenomena to international conflicts.