Published on: February 13, 2026, 11:59 AM.
Updated on: February 13, 2026, 11:59 AM.
- Two individuals, including an Israeli reservist, face charges linked to insider Polymarket wagers
- Reportedly utilized classified military intelligence during the conflict with Iran
- Case remains under a gag order; no operational damage reported
Israeli authorities have filed serious security charges against two persons who allegedly placed insider bets on military operations via the Polymarket prediction platform.
The fraudulent bets were allegedly informed by classified insights that one of the accused had due to their military role, as detailed in a statement from the Israeli government. One of the suspects is identified as a military reservist.
Operation Rising Lion
The identities of the suspects and the specifics of their bets have not been revealed. However, Kan News, Israel’s public broadcaster, previously reported that the IDF and the internal security service Shin Bet were investigating a Polymarket user who operated anonymously.
The account “ricosuave666” made multiple wagers on events connected to Operation Rising Lion, Israel’s 2025 military campaign aimed at Iran’s nuclear facilities, which resulted in retaliatory missile strikes over several days.
According to Kan News, Ricosuave666 correctly predicted all key aspects, including the timing of Israel’s opening assault on June 13, netting approximately $150,000 from tens of thousands of dollars wagered.
“The defense agency has emphasized that making such bets based on confidential and classified information poses a serious risk to IDF operations and national security,” government officials stated.
Authorities regard “the actions attributed to the accused with the utmost seriousness and are committed to preventing and prosecuting anyone involved in the illegal exploitation of classified information,” they added, clarifying that “no operational damage has occurred.”
Further information has been withheld due to a court-imposed gag order.
If proven true, this marks the first known instance of individuals attempting to gain financially from armed conflict through wagers utilizing military secrets.
Market Predictions
Prediction markets like Polymarket claim to operate as forecasting tools that effectively synthesize information based on the theory of the “wisdom of crowds” — suggesting that traders’ diverse knowledge and financial incentives lead to more accurate event probability prices. Conversely, critics argue that they commodify war and disasters.
In January, a Polymarket user successfully predicted the ousting of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, transforming a $32,000 bet into over $400,000 in gains.
Many observers questioned whether the trader had non-public insights due to the majority of wagers being placed just hours before President Donald Trump announced the U.S. operation capturing Maduro.
It remains uncertain if this incident triggered a formal criminal inquiry.