Published on: February 17, 2026, 08:42h.
Updated on: February 17, 2026, 08:42h.
- Bitwise and GraniteShares enter the competitive realm of prediction market ETFs
- New funds mirror previously suggested offerings
- SEC has yet to approve these ETFs
The landscape of prediction markets is highly competitive, especially with the race to establish exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to political event contracts.
Following a recent filing by Roundhill Investments with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for ETFs targeting event contracts based on the upcoming 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential elections, competitors Bitwise Investments and GraniteShares have also made their moves with similar filings.
Bitwise, under the PredictionShares brand, has filed for ETFs reflecting both potential outcomes of the 2028 presidential race — whether a Democrat or Republican wins — alongside four funds assessing which party will gain control of Congress post the November midterms. Their filing suggests these presidential derivatives ETFs will not extend beyond the 2028 election.
“Upon the conclusion of the 2028 Presidential Election and the settlement of the Democratic President Contracts as per their terms, the Fund will liquidate its positions, settle any outstanding liabilities, and distribute any remaining assets to shareholders,” the regulatory filing states. “If a Democratic Party member does not win the 2028 Presidential Election, the Fund will lose nearly all of its value, and such distribution is expected to be minimal. Afterward, the Fund will conclude its activities and shut down.”
Bitwise might later adapt the configuration of these PredictionShares ETFs, provided they gain approval, to effectively transition to subsequent electoral cycles, similar to the approach indicated by Roundhill in their SEC submission. Currently, the SEC has not authorized any political prediction market ETFs.
Insights into the GraniteShares Application
GraniteShares targets election-related yes/no event contracts, which are anticipated to see increased activity as we approach this year’s primary and general election cycles.
This asset management firm aims to introduce ETFs focused on Democratic and Republican presidential and congressional elections. Their SEC filing suggests that if approved, these ETFs will not conclude after the 2026 and 2028 elections. Instead, the funds for the House and Senate elections in 2026 will be restructured for the 2028 elections, while the presidential ETFs will be adjusted to include derivatives based on the 2032 election.
Regardless of the issuer, all proposed political prediction market ETFs reflect the zero-sum nature of politics. In other words, ETFs linked to the losing party will essentially hold no value post-Election Day. For instance:
“The investment goal of the GraniteShares Democratic Senate ETF is to provide capital growth if the Democratic Party secures control of the U.S. Senate after the elections on November 3, 2026,” states their filing. “IF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY DOES NOT SECURE CONTROL OF THE U.S. SENATE FOLLOWING THE ELECTIONS ON NOVEMBER 3, 2026, the Fund will lose nearly all of its value.”
No Details on Contract Sources
Similar to the Roundhill submission, both Bitwise and GraniteShares haven’t revealed which exchanges they will partner with to obtain political event contracts, although they indicated plans to collaborate with Designated Contract Markets (DCMs).
Kalshi and Polymarket dominate the prediction market space, but Interactive Brokers, through its ownership of ForecastEx, also plays a significant role in political derivatives.
If the ETFs receive approval, it is likely that issuers will engage with multiple yes/no exchanges. Further information is expected to surface as the regulatory approval process unfolds.