Published on: February 21, 2026, at 11:19 AM.
Updated on: February 21, 2026, at 11:19 AM.
- A casino in Northern Virginia could provide moderate tax revenue for Fairfax County
- Establishing a casino will not resolve Fairfax County’s financial issues
- Fairfax County continues to explore alternative revenue streams
According to a recent study, a casino proposed for Northern Virginia, specifically Fairfax County, could generate significant local tax revenue.
Virginia state lawmakers are actively deliberating on the potential inclusion of Fairfax County as an eligible site for slot machines and table games. Presently, only cities like Portsmouth, Norfolk, Bristol, Danville, and Petersburg are authorized to host casinos.
Senate Bill 756, spearheaded by Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell (D-Fairfax), received approval from the Senate with a vote of 23-14 earlier this month. It has progressed to the Virginia House of Delegates, where it is now under the General Laws Committee’s consideration.
Opposition against the casino initiative is robust within Fairfax County. The county Board of Supervisors has formally declared its disapproval of SB657 in its 2026 Legislative Program, with numerous homeowners’ associations and civic organizations voicing their concerns.
Regional Economic Impact
A recent report by MuniCap, a consulting firm specializing in public finance based in Maryland, suggests that a casino resort could provide a welcome influx of tax revenue for Fairfax County.
This analysis, shared with FFXnow, estimates that the casino could yield about $313.6 million in annual gross gaming revenue (GGR), translating to approximately $42.4 million in state and local taxes. Fairfax County would receive an estimated $19.9 million from this.
Revenue generated from other resort services, including hotel operations, concerts, conventions, dining, and retail, could push Fairfax’s total annual benefit over $29 million.
Although $29 million is a considerable amount, it represents a small fraction of Fairfax County’s yearly expenditures, with the 2026 fiscal budget indicating approximately $5.71 billion in general fund outlays.
As of January 1, 2026, the county’s implementation of a 4% tax surcharge on all restaurant meals and beverages is projected to generate $135.8 million within this fiscal year alone.
Is the Estimate Conservative?
The GGR projection of $313.6 million per year provided by MuniCap appears to be a conservative estimate. For comparison, MGM’s casino at National Harbor, Maryland, reported a GGR exceeding $823.2 million in 2025.
Supporters argue that establishing a casino in Fairfax County could recapture a substantial portion of gaming revenue currently benefiting MGM National Harbor in Maryland.
Fairfax County has frequently turned to increasing real estate taxes to manage rising expenses. However, revenues from the county’s major office buildings have not recovered to pre-pandemic levels, necessitating the exploration of new income sources.
If a casino license is granted to Fairfax, local voters will determine the project’s fate through a countywide referendum. Caesars Entertainment and Wynn Resorts have both expressed interest in the prospect.