Published on: February 21, 2026, at 06:44h.
Updated on: February 21, 2026, at 06:44h.
- Canada holds a slender betting lead at Caesars Sportsbook
- Insights from Karry Shreeve, Head of Hockey at Caesars Sportsbook
- Sidney Crosby faces a knee issue and will be a game-time decision for Canada
The Olympic men’s gold medal hockey match between the USA and Canada is set to kick off at 8:10 a.m. EST tomorrow, a time slot that may not be traditional for North American sports enthusiasts.
In Ontario, Premier Doug Ford has authorized bars and restaurants to start serving alcohol as early as 6 a.m. tomorrow.
The excitement and importance of this matchup overshadow any grumbling about the early start. This is likely the most significant hockey match in U.S. history, occurring 46 years after the iconic “Miracle on Ice” gold medal triumph over the favored Russians. It’s poised to be among the greatest moments in Canadian hockey, rivaling the memorable 1972 Summit Series finale against the Soviet team in Moscow when Paul Henderson scored a legendary goal. This game is expected to be a Top 10 all-time event for Canada’s hockey enthusiasts.
Betting Insights
Similar to last winter’s 4 Nations Face-Off, where Canadian stars triumphed over U.S. all-stars thanks to a Connor McDavid overtime goal, this game carries significant political weight.
Recent remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump about the possibility of making Canada the 51st state, along with a trade dispute fueled by tariffs, have sparked a noticeable anti-American sentiment in Canada that continues to persist.
Casino.org spoke with Karry Shreeve, Head of Hockey at Caesars Sportsbook, to gather insights on the betting landscape just 13 hours before the puck drops for this monumental game.
Sports Betting: Early Game Impact
Shreeve shared his thoughts on how the early start time may influence betting activity.
“The only factor that could lead to lower betting volumes compared to the 4 Nations Final is the actual time of the game,” he stated. “With the game beginning at 8 a.m. (EST) on Sunday, we may not see quite the same public momentum as we would if the game had started at noon or certainly in the evening. Nevertheless, I anticipate higher volumes than most NHL playoff games. Early bets are leaning towards the USA, which is expected given the circumstances.”
Home Field Advantage
At Caesars Sportsbook, Canada is currently the slight favorite at -120, while the USA stands at +100. The puckline sits at Canada -1.5 (+230) and the USA +1.5 (-260), with the over/under set at Over 5.5 (+135) and Under 5.5 (-155).
To what extent is this betting line influenced by local bias, as opposed to genuine advantages like Canada’s forward depth, featuring a formidable trio at center with Connor McDavid, Nathan McKinnon, and possibly, Crosby?
“Home bias certainly plays a role, but recency bias is significant as well. The USA’s recent performance looks stronger on paper, while Canada has rallied from behind in a couple of games to reach this Final,” he noted. “As public interest has surged in recent days, the affection for the U.S. team, including the women’s team, is heavily affecting the current odds.”
Analyzing Canada’s Roster Strength
Where is the public betting money flowing, and what are sharp bettors indicating?
“More money is siding with the USA, although sharp bettors will likely take advantage of a line that hasn’t been reflective of the overall tournament performance,” Shreeve mentioned. “Before the Final Four, Canada was mostly pegged at -135 to win gold, making the current odds much more appealing.”
Prop bets are also significant, particularly around key players like McDavid and USA’s captain Auston Matthews. We inquired with Shreeve about any players garnering unexpected betting attention.
Jack Eichel’s Betting Surge
“Jack Eichel has gained considerable attention throughout the tournament and continues to do so in this Final,” he indicated. “Dylan Larkin is also attracting bets, mainly due to his odds, which can be argued to hold value. On Canada’s side, Mitch Marner is witnessing similar interest. I’d like to think it’s the Vegas Golden Knights’ connection, but that could be bias on my part. Besides that, Matthews and McDavid lead the betting activity as the game nears.”
The goaltender showdown—Team USA’s Connor Hellebuyck against Team Canada’s Jordan Binnington—is also a primary betting focus, particularly with the O/U line at 5.5 and both teams boasting a lineup of superstar talent.
Over/Under Predictions for the Final
“In tight, high-stakes ‘Game 7’-type scenarios, I often find wisdom in historical trends, which suggest a tendency to lean towards an outcome that stays under 5.5,” Shreeve commented. “The women’s final, which was a tightly contested 1-1 game that went into overtime, is a prime example. Both teams have impressive offensive capabilities, but the intensity of the moment typically leads to tightly contested, lower-scoring games with limited space on the ice.”