Published on: February 27, 2026, 11:31h.
Updated on: February 27, 2026, 11:31h.
- Company asserts that prediction markets require its approval to offer Derby event contracts
- The gaming entity has yet to agree to grant that authorization and appears resistant
When the Kentucky Derby occurs on Saturday, May 2, do not expect to find event contracts related to “the run for the roses” available on prediction markets. Churchill Downs (NASDAQ: CHDN) is not permitting it.
The gaming corporation released its fourth-quarter financial results earlier this week, and during a conference call with analysts, CEO Bill Carstanjen confirmed that the first event of the Triple Crown and Churchill Downs’ flagship annual event will not be accessible to prediction markets. Some of this decision stems from regulatory concerns.
“We function under a distinct legal framework compared to other sports in the United States. Pari-mutuel betting on horse racing is governed by the Interstate Horse Racing Act, a federal law that essentially bestows upon us a set of rights,” Carstanjen stated in response to a query from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon.
The CEO of Churchill Downs equated these rights to those of intellectual property, asserting that the owner of the intellectual property ultimately decides how related content is shared.
Prediction Markets Eager for Kentucky Derby Access
Although it remains speculative at this point, should the Super Bowl serve as a precedent, it’s likely that prediction market operators would be enthusiastic about establishing markets for the Derby and probably the majority of events during Derby Week, including The Oaks.
Major events, be it in sports, the State of the Union address, or award ceremonies, tend to increase activity on yes/no exchanges. While the industry seeks to branch out beyond just sports event contracts, the Derby is precisely the kind of unique event that could serve as a short-term boost for prediction markets.
However, do not anticipate cooperation from Churchill Downs with yes/no exchanges anytime soon. Carstanjen made it clear that prediction markets do not fit within the realm of horse racing betting, and he doesn’t foresee any changes in this stance “for the foreseeable future.”
“To accept wagers through any medium, whether from a sports betting platform, an alternative horse racing platform such as advance deposit wagering, or a prediction markets platform, our explicit consent is required,” the CEO noted during the call. “You cannot proceed without that approval. We have not consented to share our content with prediction markets. We remain focused on maintaining our current distribution channels, which we believe effectively reach our customer base.”
Positive Outlook for Kentucky Derby Week
Wagering on both the Derby and the corresponding week of events has set new records in recent years, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) also nearing record levels.
Churchill Downs has reported encouraging trends for the Derby and anticipates EBITDA growth of $15 million to $20 million this year. Despite some changes to this year’s Derby Week festivities that could enhance appeal to prediction markets, access will remain off-limits.
“Management has announced the introduction of a race on the Sunday before the Derby (4/26), marking the first Sunday race during Derby Week in more than 15 years,” noted Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas in a report to clients. “Derby week will now span over seven live race dates across eight calendar days. Additionally, the Kentucky Oaks will now take place during primetime (8-9 PM), and management highlights the Oaks as the fourth most-bet race in the US, with expectations of benefiting from the national primetime slot.”