Published on: March 4, 2026, 01:38h.
Updated on: March 4, 2026, 01:38h.
- Company anticipates that VGTs in the Chicago region could launch by late 2026.
- Market analysts see this as a major driver for stock performance.
- One analyst suggests that Chicago’s VGTs might offer greater profit margins and quicker returns than Accel’s current operations in Illinois.
During after-hours trading, Accel Entertainment (NYSE: ACEL) saw its stock price climb over 18%, supported by a trading volume exceeding daily averages by 75%, after the company provided optimistic insights regarding video gaming terminals (VGTs) in Chicago.
As part of its quarterly disclosures and the financial results for 2025, the gaming operator made positive remarks about the VGT landscape in Chicago, which is the third-largest city in the U.S. To increase tax revenues, city officials are considering legalizing VGTs, projected by the City Council Office of Financial Analysis (COFA) to generate approximately $64 million annually.
“We are thrilled and closely monitoring the ongoing developments in Chicago regarding the rollout of video gaming terminals in permitted establishments,” stated Accel Chairman and CEO Andrew Rubenstein during a conference call with analysts. “As the leading operator in Illinois, we believe Accel is exceptionally positioned to play a significant role.”
Accel already has a strong presence in Illinois, with estimates suggesting that the state may contribute up to 75% of its earnings. This established footprint and familiarity with local regulatory environments may facilitate a smoother and quicker rollout of VGTs in Chicago.
Why Chicago Presents a Growth Opportunity for Accel Entertainment Shares
During the conference call, Accel COO and President Mark Phelan noted that VGTs in Chicago could potentially become operational in either the fourth quarter of 2026 or the first quarter of 2027, contingent on how swiftly the Illinois Gaming Board (IGB) can process applications.
Investors are clearly optimistic about this timeline, as a quicker launch could mean that Accel begins generating revenue from Chicago’s VGT operations as early as this year. Analysts are also supportive of this estimated timeframe.
“With Accel’s estimated 30% market share in Illinois, we could be looking at around 390 new locations. Considering the size differences between urban and suburban locations, we anticipate 4 games per site instead of the maximum of 6 allowed,” mentioned Texas Capital analyst David Bain in a client note. “Assuming a daily revenue of $180 per machine, as opposed to Accel’s average of ~$158 in other counties (Q4 2025 average), this could total an annualized revenue of $102.5 million by the end of 2027 from the new market.”
Bain further emphasizes that in Chicago, Accel’s payback periods could be shorter and profit margins higher than their established operations in Illinois. He maintains a “buy” rating on the stock with a target price of $17, indicating a potential upside of 30.7% from current levels.
Upside Potential for Accel Entertainment Stock
Accel’s straightforward business model — distributing VGTs across various venues such as restaurants, bars, convenience stores, and grocery stores — could be particularly attractive to investors looking to reduce risk while still achieving growth.
Moreover, the gaming stock may benefit from an expanded market reach as investors shift away from large-cap technology stocks toward small-cap value companies. Certainly, Accel exhibits characteristics of value.
“We believe Accel’s local, primarily variable-cost operations place it in a better position to withstand economic downturns or geopolitical uncertainty compared to most regional casinos,” concludes Bain. “Additionally, the prospects for distributed gaming could offer more lucrative geographic expansion opportunities than traditional casino companies, and the anticipated Chicago rollout is not yet factored into current valuations. Despite this, Accel is currently trading at a 23% EV/EBITDA discount compared to regional casinos.”