Published on: March 9, 2026, 06:00h.
Updated on: March 8, 2026, 07:37h.
- Casino stocks have declined since early 2026
- Wynn’s shares are down 10.51% in the last month, coinciding with US and Israeli military actions against Iran, and Iranian counterattacks targeting the UAE
- Analyst claims that the market reaction linked to the Middle East is exaggerated
Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) is experiencing a downturn, particularly exacerbated by the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, where the company is about to become the sole casino operator.
In the last fortnight, Wynn’s stock has fallen approximately 11%, which is more than four times the losses seen in the S&P 500, driven by the military strikes against Iran and retaliatory actions affecting the UAE, home to Wynn’s upcoming $5.1 billion Al Marjan Island casino resort, set to open next year.
With Wynn expanding into a region previously resistant to regulated gambling and known for its geopolitical instability, investor apprehension is understandable.
“Considering the recent upheaval in the Middle East, investors are keen on how this situation might affect WYNN’s UAE casino project expected to launch in 1Q27,” stated Stifel analyst Steven Wieczynski in a report released on Sunday. “The straightforward answer is WYNN is uncertain, as the unrest has just begun. We can’t make any long-term predictions, as it would be largely speculative.”
Nevertheless, the analyst maintained a “buy” recommendation with a price target of $150 for the stock, arguing that the market’s reaction is an overreaction to the developments in the Middle East.
Wynn’s UAE Casino Not Currently Targeted by Iran
Wynn and its local collaborators are nearing the completion of the UAE integrated resort, located approximately an hour’s drive from Dubai.
This close proximity is seen as beneficial since Dubai’s economy is thriving, attracting wealthy tourists globally; however, it has also contributed to the recent decline in Wynn’s stock value, especially after Iranian strikes on two luxury Dubai hotels—the Burj Al Arab and Fairmont The Palm—on February 28.
Thus, both Wynn and its shareholders are likely eager for a swift resolution to the ongoing conflict with Iran. As one of the prime global casino markets, the UAE is regarded as an untapped goldmine. Some analysts predict that, following the contributions from other integrated resorts, the UAE market could generate $3 billion to $5 billion in annual gross gaming revenue (GGR).
“Although some slight delays in construction timelines could occur — as WYNN prioritizes the safety of its construction team — any postponements will likely be immaterial in terms of long-term share value, which does not justify the ~11% drop experienced in such a short interval,” Wieczynski added.
Analysts Remain Optimistic About Wynn’s UAE Casino
In December, Wynn hosted a UAE analyst and investor tour, which predominantly yielded positive feedback. Though this assessment came before the current conflict with Iran, there is a prevailing sentiment that Wynn’s forecast for annual EBITDA ranging from $265 million to $460 million may be underestimated.
This outlook would boost Wynn, its partners, and shareholders. Wieczynski concurs that the forecast may ultimately prove overly cautious.
“We firmly believe that WYNN’s projected EBITDA (which was reiterated during the UAE investor presentation) will ultimately be conservative for multiple reasons. Based on our analysis, we estimate that the UAE project could yield a value of $19-$25 in current dollars,” the analyst concluded.