Published on: March 13, 2026, 08:07h.
Updated on: March 13, 2026, 08:10h.
- One Battle After Another is the leading betting choice for Best Picture at DraftKings
- Michael B. Jordan and Timothée Chalamet are competing for the Best Actor title
- Jessie Buckley is widely regarded as a strong contender for Best Actress
Oscar viewership has been on a steady decline for several years, dropping from over 40 million viewers in 2014 to just above 18 million last year. This decrease can be attributed to various factors such as reduced cinema attendance and the fragmentation of media options. According to Johnny Avello, the Director of Race & Sports Operations at DraftKings, betting on the Oscars could be a strategy to boost these numbers.
Current Oscars Odds
Avello, who has been setting odds for the Oscars and similar award shows for nearly 30 years, shares insights into the changing landscape. A self-proclaimed movie enthusiast, he has already watched most of the Best Picture nominees for the upcoming ceremony, including One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, F1, The Secret Agent, Sinners, Hamnet, Train Dreams, Frankenstein, Sentimental Value, and Bugonia.
Among his favorites, he highlighted the 2019 film Uncut Gems, featuring Adam Sandler, created by the Safdie Brothers, which has a significant sports betting element. Josh Safdie has also directed Marty Supreme, earning a Best Director nomination.
Casino.org recently discussed with Avello about how odds for events like the Oscars are calculated and the primary contenders in major categories this year.
Top Betting Picks
At DraftKings, One Battle After Another leads the way at -400 for Best Picture, with Sinners at +275, Hamnet at +2000, Marty Supreme at +4000, Sentimental Value at +6500, Train Dreams at +10000, Frankenstein at +10000, Bugonia at +10000, The Secret Agent at +20000, and F1 at +20000.
In the Best Actor category, Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) is favored at -185, followed by Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) at +150, and Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) at +1200. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) leads Best Actress at -3500, with Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) at +1200 and Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) at +2500.
For Best Supporting Actor, Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) is the top favorite at -350. Amy Madigan (Weapons) currently leads for Best Supporting Actress at -140. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) is the strong favorite for Best Director at -2500, with Safdie at +3500.
Analyzing Penn’s Chances
Avello noted that among the Best Picture nominees he has seen, Sinners stood out, but One Battle After Another has maintained its status as the favorite since October.
“Typically, favorites don’t hold up this long, but this one has,” he remarked. “We have seen betting interest in Sinners. My family watched (Marty Supreme), although I haven’t seen it. Their tastes lean toward happy endings, which can skew opinions. I have a different perspective on films.”
Betting on the Oscars is available through DraftKings in several states including Ontario, Michigan, New Jersey, Indiana, Arizona, Kansas, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, and Puerto Rico.
Emerging Prediction Markets
DraftKings has integrated a prediction market feature, offering Oscars betting in a more extensive array of locations.
While Oscar betting may not reach the popularity of NFL wagering, Avello emphasized its growing appeal, providing a unique incentive for entertainment enthusiasts.
“It’s an exciting night for film lovers and the entertainment industry as a whole,” he added. “We aim to continue initiatives like this.”
Betting could help revitalize declining ratings.
“Absolutely,” Avello noted. “People enjoy engaging with events actively, and that thrill can enhance the viewing experience. We might see a boost in Oscar viewership this year, particularly since it has seen a decline recently.”
Understanding Odds Composition
What factors contribute to the creation of odds for films and actors in sportsbooks?
“It involves extensive online research,” Avello explained. “For available films, we watch them; for those we cannot access, we consult expert opinions. We rank movies from best to worst, set initial odds, and adjust as more bets come in. We continually revise these as award shows conclude.”
“The surge in Michael B. Jordan’s status from an $8 underdog to a $2 favorite for Best Actor is attributed to his SAG Award win, which is highly regarded in acting circles.”
Penn also appears to hold a strong position as other Best Supporting Actor nominees, like Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners), didn’t receive SAG nominations, according to Avello (although Benicio del Toro in One Battle After Another and Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein did).
Impact of SAG Awards
“If there’s a standout favorite with a manageable risk, it might be Penn,” Avello remarked. “Madigan has been gaining momentum for Best Supporting Actress as well.”
Our recommendations? We predict Jordan for Best Actor, Buckley for Best Actress, Penn for Best Supporting Actor, Madigan for Best Supporting Actress, and the esteemed Paul Thomas Anderson, celebrated for his iconic films dating back to Boogie Nights, for Best Director, with Sinners taking the Best Picture title.
Anderson received the Directors Guild of America Award for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in February, indicating what could be anticipated on Sunday night, Avello concluded.
“In my extensive history with the Oscars since 1994, the most unexpected outcomes often transpire in the supporting categories,” he reflected.