Published on: March 17, 2026, 10:44h.
Updated on: March 17, 2026, 10:44h.
- The BETS OFF Act aims to align with the DEATH Bets Act in curbing prediction markets
- The proposed federal legislation intends to restrict specific event contracts from being traded on CFTC-sanctioned exchanges
Congress is now tasked with evaluating a new legislative proposal focused on the types of trading contracts that federally regulated prediction markets can offer.
Today, Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) and Representative Greg Casar (D-TX) rolled out the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions Act, commonly known as the BETS OFF Act. This legislation seeks to prohibit prediction markets overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission from allowing participants to bet on future events related to government actions, terrorism, warfare, assassinations, and scenarios where the outcome is strictly controlled by an individual.
“These markets are inherently corrupt. They are prone to insider trading and create harmful incentives, particularly for government officials, to influence official decisions for personal financial gain,” Murphy stated during a press conference unveiling the BETS OFF Act.
Murphy referenced a specific instance where there was notable trading activity on Polymarket just prior to US airstrikes on Iran. He noted that many accounts profiting significantly from the Iran-specific markets had only opened the day before the conflict began.
Federal Legislation for Prediction Markets
The BETS OFF Act introduced by Murphy and Casar follows the DEATH BETS Act proposed earlier this month by Senator Adam Schiff (D-CA) and Representative Mike Levin (D-CA). This legislation also aims to prevent CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering contracts regarding war, death, and similar themes.
Earlier in the month, Senators Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Andy Kim (D-NJ) introduced the Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act, which suggests excluding sports event contracts from CFTC oversight.
Democratic lawmakers express opposition to the current CFTC chairman, Michael Selig, appointed by President Donald Trump, who promotes what he terms as “innovation” in prediction markets. Despite the exclusion of trades relating to war, terrorism, and assassinations under CFTC guidelines, Polymarket has continued its operations in these markets without facing consequences since being regulated by the federal agency in late 2025.
The leading prediction market, Kalshi, stirred controversy by canceling bets regarding the timeline of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s departure from power. Kalshi concluded that, following the ayatollah’s assassination, the event outcome reverted to the price before the incident due to a “death carveout.”
“Our proposed legislation is straightforward. It simply states that these markets cannot permit individuals to make bets based on governmental decision-making or instances wherein a sole person controls and knows the market’s outcome,” Murphy mentioned.
Addressing the ‘Corruption Crisis’
Casar highlighted the ongoing “corruption crisis” in the United States under the Trump administration.
“After pledging to ‘drain the swamp,’ Trump has instead overseen one of the most corrupt administrations in the history of the United States,” Casar asserted.
Casar emphasized that the BETS OFF Act seeks to combat “one of the most perilous new channels for government corruption.”