Published on: March 17, 2026, at 11:31 AM.
Updated on: March 17, 2026, at 11:31 AM.
- Rapid cryptocurrency trading gains traction on Polymarket and similar prediction markets
- Expert claims these traders engage in gambling rather than investing
- Concerns raised that such event contracts could undermine crypto’s reputation
Ultra-short-term cryptocurrency trading is becoming more favored among participants on Polymarket; however, an industry expert suggests these activities amount to disguised gambling.
Polymarket claims to run the globe’s largest prediction market, offering yes/no contracts based on Bitcoin’s price fluctuations within intervals of five or 15 minutes. While many traders appreciate rapid resolutions, Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, argues that these event contracts deviate from legitimate investment strategies.
“What we’re witnessing is not investing; it’s high-speed speculation masquerading as opportunity,” he stated in a recent note. “These five-minute Bitcoin wagers trivialize a significant asset into short-lived bets. The sheer speed of these trades eliminates substantial analysis.”
Polymarket also features five-minute markets for other prominent digital currencies like Ether, Solana, and XRP, but a significant portion of the trading volume for those derivatives comes from Bitcoin, the market’s leading cryptocurrency.
Retail Traders Face Challenges in Expedited Crypto Markets
There’s undeniable momentum as both institutional and retail traders flock to Polymarket’s rapid crypto markets. Recent analytics reveal that daily trading volumes in these five- and 15-minute segments have skyrocketed to over $60 million, in stark contrast to the mere $1 million in daily turnover for longer-term cryptocurrency contracts.
For retail traders, the allure of swift trade resolutions and quick account growth are enticing; however, Green cautions that they may be at a technological disadvantage compared to professional traders in this landscape.
“Markets determined by minute-by-minute outcomes tend to favor those with superior systems and information flow. Professional traders are optimized for this environment,” Green points out. “Most individual traders are not, risking unfavorable positions far more frequently.”
He further notes that Bitcoin contracts evaluated in minute intervals drive retail traders to concentrate on short-term price climates rather than foundational analysis, leading to potentially detrimental decision-making. The potential for retail traders to chase losses, providing liquidity to winning professional traders, is also a concern.
Brief Betting Instances May Influence Bitcoin’s Perception
Critics of prediction markets warn that these platforms obscure the lines between investment and gambling, presenting risks to aggressive retail traders. Green emphasizes that there are also inherent risks to Bitcoin, especially as it gains traction among institutional stakeholders and global regulators.
He points out that the short-term yes/no contracts linked to Bitcoin’s price action reinforce the misconception that the asset is merely speculative, which contrasts with how many institutional investors really approach Bitcoin.
“There will always be those drawn to quick returns and brief outcomes; this is nothing new. The critical part is acknowledging the nature of your engagement,” he concludes. “While some are attracted to speed, that should not be mistaken for serious investing or replace a well-thought-out long-term strategy.”