Most US adults perceive prediction market trading as being more akin to gambling than investment, based on a recent survey by Ipsos for the American Institute for Boys and Men.
The research revealed that 61% of participants consider prediction market trading to be “more like gambling,” while only 8% view it as “more like investing.” Additionally, 18% see it as a combination of both, while 12% say it’s neither.
In recent years, prediction markets have emerged as platforms where users can trade contracts linked to various outcomes in sports, politics, business, news, and entertainment. This growth has caught the attention of regulators and stakeholders within the gambling sector.
Ipsos conducted the survey with 2,363 adults from February 27 to March 1. The sample included an oversampling of men aged 18 to 24, as indicated by the commissioning body.
Jonathan Cohen, policy lead at the American Institute for Boys and Men, highlighted younger men as a group particularly vulnerable to gambling risks, especially as access to sports contracts increases.
“The negative impacts of sports gambling are significantly more pronounced among younger men, making prediction markets the new frontier in discussions around sports betting,” Cohen stated in an interview with Axios.
Tarek Mansour, CEO of prediction market Kalshi, has challenged the comparisons made between prediction markets and gambling.
“I’m not quite sure how this relates to gambling,” he remarked in April. “If we’re labeled as gambling, then it could be said that all financial markets are gambling too.”
Regulatory bodies at both federal and state levels are actively assessing how to oversee prediction markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has announced plans to take legal action to uphold its regulatory authority.
Concurrently, several state gaming commissions, including Nevada’s, along with numerous states, have initiated measures to curb the operation of prediction market platforms in their areas.
Cohen expressed that public perception may dictate how these platforms are managed by regulators.
“If the public perceives this as being more gambling than investing, then it is likely that these platforms—especially those involving sports contracts—should be regulated in a manner similar to gambling rather than investing,” he mentioned.
The survey also reveals that public familiarity with prediction markets is relatively low. About 20% of Americans reported being somewhat or very familiar with prediction markets, while only about 4% stated they had participated in a prediction market in the last six months. Cohen noted that this opens opportunities for public perceptions and regulatory approaches to shift as awareness grows.