Published on: March 18, 2026, 01:15h.
Updated on: March 18, 2026, 01:15h.
- That’s nearly eight times the number of individuals viewing event contracts as a form of investment.
- 41% utilize prediction markets for profit.
- Young males are almost twice as likely to engage in sports betting and prediction markets compared to the general population.
Prediction markets aim to establish themselves as state-of-the-art financial services or fintech firms; however, the American public often perceives this sector merely as a mode of gambling.
An Ipsos survey carried out with the American Institute for Boys and Men (AIBM) reveals that 61% of participants perceive purchasing event contracts on prediction markets as akin to gambling rather than investing. Merely 8% interpret event contracts as investments.
According to the survey, among those familiar with prediction markets, the majority of Americans (91%) and 88% of young men view buying event contracts as financially hazardous, comparable to investing in cryptocurrency or wagering on sports.
These comparisons to cryptocurrency arise, as certain prediction markets attract unsuspecting retail traders with event contracts linked to digital asset prices that expire within just five or fifteen minutes, frequently resulting in unfavorable outcomes for those without the skills to compete against seasoned professionals.
Low Familiarity with Prediction Markets…For Now
For active bettors and traders, it might seem that prediction markets are everywhere. While some companies in this sector frequently make headlines, the AIBM/Ipsos survey confirms that yes/no exchanges are considerably less recognized than traditional sportsbooks.
Only 21% of survey respondents claimed to be “somewhat familiar” with prediction markets, while 35% reported the same for sportsbooks. Although awareness of prediction markets is higher among young men, it still lags behind that of sportsbooks.
“Familiarity with prediction markets is below one-third (29%) even among men aged 18–24, although it is noticeably more prevalent than in the general populace,” the poll indicates.
Interestingly, familiarity with prediction markets shows no significant variance between residents of states where sports betting is legal and those where it is not. Other research suggests heightened interest in prediction markets in states where sports wagering is banned; however, many bettors in these areas express intent to shift to traditional sports betting once it becomes legal.
Debate on Predictive Market Regulation
The AIBM/Ipsos survey reveals a division among Americans regarding the regulation of prediction markets. Fifty-nine percent of participants believe it would be wise to regulate prediction markets similarly to gambling operations, while 52% advocate for regulation akin to financial service firms. Additionally, 37% assert that the industry needs new regulatory guidelines, and 25% insist that it should be completely prohibited.
Confidence is scant regarding the ability of prediction markets to mitigate insider trading, a growing concern that is attracting political attention.
“In relation, only 9% of respondents—alongside 27% of prediction market users—are confident that prediction markets can prevent individuals with non-public information from disproportionately benefiting on these platforms (only 13% of all respondents felt confident about online sports betting platforms, and 30% expressed confidence in the stock market),” the AIBM/Ipsos survey articulated.