Published on: March 22, 2026, 04:16h.
Updated on: March 22, 2026, 04:16h.
- MLB partners with Polymarket for predictions
- MLB joins other pro sports leagues in prediction markets
- Exclusive interview with ex-NFL lawyer behind gambling contracts
The announcement of Major League Baseball’s partnership with Polymarket to enter the prediction market arena has sparked significant discussions, particularly given the sport’s tumultuous history with gambling, which dates back to the infamous Black Sox scandal of 1919.
Controversial Past
On Thursday, MLB officially designated Polymarket as its approved prediction market exchange, joining a growing list of professional sports leagues collaborating with prediction market firms. Notable partnerships include Major League Soccer’s agreement with Polymarket earlier in the year and a multi-year deal between the NHL and both Polymarket and Kalshi announced last October.
However, the conversation surrounding the legality of prediction markets continues to be contentious. The American Gaming Association (AGA), which represents the legal sports betting sector, has fervently argued that contracts associated with sports events via prediction markets should undergo the same regulatory scrutiny as conventional state-sanctioned sports betting.
Collaboration with CFTC
Participants in the prediction market, like Polymarket, argue that their offerings are financial products regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). A survey by the AGA last September indicated that 85% of respondents viewed sports event contracts as gambling, with only 6% seeing them as financial instruments.
As a part of their collaboration, Polymarket gains the right to utilize MLB branding and logos on its platform and access Sportradar data for its baseball offerings. A crucial aspect of this partnership involves creating an integrity framework to mitigate risks related to integrity, including markets focused on individual pitches, managerial decisions, and umpire evaluations.
Debate on Legality
Additionally, MLB and the CFTC have established a confidentiality agreement to facilitate information sharing, which is essential for maintaining the integrity of the game and responding quickly to incidents, while also predicting future trends as prediction markets expand.
The range of opinions on this issue is broad—some see it as a dangerous blurring of the lines between betting and investing, while others view it as a savvy move to enhance fan engagement through modern means, including cryptocurrency, which is the currency of choice on Polymarket.
For insights into this topic, Doug Mishkin, a former attorney for the NFL now with BCLP in Manhattan, provides a unique viewpoint. As the primary lawyer for the NFL’s significant gambling agreements, he played a crucial role in negotiating contracts after the 2018 decision that legalized sports betting nationwide.
Pro Sports and Prediction Markets
“Given the current popularity of sports prediction market platforms among fans, it’s rational for leagues to seek control over these environments through contractual partnerships, while also benefiting financially,” Mishkin remarked.
“However, historically, sports leagues have not been deeply involved in the Commodities Exchange Act established in 1936—contrasting with their proactive stance on state-regulated sports betting legislation. This represents uncharted territory, and all parties may face a learning curve to establish responsible partnership models.”
Concerns Over Integrity
The contract between MLB and Polymarket includes explicit clauses that would nullify the agreement should courts declare prediction markets illegal in specific states. Several lawsuits addressing this matter are underway in various states.
“Including provisions for legal contingencies within a contract is not a new practice—there are similarities to the daily fantasy sports industry around 2015, where leagues pursued official sponsorships amid allegations that DFS constituted illegal gambling,” Mishkin noted.
High Stakes Ahead
“However, while DFS was able to tailor its offerings on a state-by-state basis according to individual laws, prediction market platforms function nationally, citing federal law as their governing framework. They maintain that enforcing state regulations would be impractical and overly burdensome. Hence, the stakes are significantly higher.”
Concerns regarding integrity in light of baseball’s gambling history and the ambiguous nature of prediction markets are certainly valid.
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“The response of, ‘How can leagues align with platforms that essentially offer unlicensed sports betting?’ is valid,” Mishkin said. “While these platforms are operating without outright regulation, they exist beyond the regulatory structure that leagues and teams have diligently worked to establish—raising legitimate concerns.”
“Yet, if leagues can leverage their power to frame contractual frameworks to address these challenges and influence new comprehensive regulations overseeing sports prediction markets—potentially even more stringent than current state laws—this could enhance the U.S. sports betting regulatory landscape significantly.”