Published on: April 7, 2026, 07:17h.
Updated on: April 7, 2026, 07:17h.
- Worse findings than previous studies showing 70% of prediction market participants incur losses.
- A new investigation reveals only 2% of Polymarket participants earned over $1,000.
- Less than 0.3% have made more than $10,000.
Recent analyses suggest that retail traders face significant obstacles in their pursuit of profits within prediction markets, with the latest research highlighting the challenges on Polymarket.
According to research by Andrey Sergeenkov, a staggering 84.1% of Polymarket participants incur losses, indicating that less than 16% are profitable. This represents a substantial decline from 40% two years earlier, per Sergeenkov’s findings.
The downturn in profitability across all levels is attributed to an influx of users driven by the anticipation of the November 2024 US elections and its ongoing aftermath. Less seasoned traders typically find it challenging to succeed,” the researcher states.
The figure of 84.1% losing traders far exceeds findings from a 2025 study by Felix Reichenbach from Technische Universität Berlin and Martin Walther from the German International University, which suggested that 70% of Polymarket’s approximate two million users report a negative profit/loss.
Social Media Influencers Mislead Traders
In the current surge of prediction markets, many social media accounts propagate stories of traders boasting impressive accuracy rates and substantial earnings on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. However, the reality paints a much more somber picture.
As noted by Sergeenkov, only 2% of 2.5 million Polymarket traders have managed to secure earnings exceeding $1,000, while a mere 0.32% report profits of $10,000 or more. Only 840 Polymarket addresses, or about 0.033% of the total, have reached earnings of over $100,000.
This lack of profitability isn’t surprising given that Polymarket, the largest prediction market by volume, has an average trade size of merely $89, with data indicating that 80% of traders have an average trade size below $500. Moreover, some analyses reveal that the typical Polymarket user engages in significantly more trades than the standard sports bettor, suggesting a trend of overtrading that may negatively impact their profit/loss outcomes.
The issue of profit becomes even more pressing, as social media influencers exploit their platforms for financial incentives from Polymarket by attracting new participants to the market.
“Polymarket has recently initiated a referral program, granting 30% of trading fees from referred users, which is likely to bring a surge of influencer-driven participants,” Sergeenkov highlights.
Prediction Markets as a Career? Think Twice.
Numerous tales circulating on social media depict anonymous individuals transforming small stakes into enormous fortunes on Polymarket, with some traders quitting their conventional jobs to pursue prediction markets full-time. This is a precarious decision.
As Sergeenkov explains, the average monthly salary in the US is $5,000, yet less than 1% of Polymarket traders achieve that figure in any given month. Furthermore, the percentage of those maintaining such earnings two months consecutively drops to just a tenth of a percent, with numbers declining from there.
Surprisingly, only 72 out of 2.5 million Polymarket accounts earned at least $5,000 for nine straight months, while a mere 35 accounts achieved this over a full year.