Published on: April 30, 2026, 11:42h.

Updated on: April 30, 2026, 11:42h.

• The leading prediction market achieved this ranking based on adjusted handle per adult.
• It advanced five positions compared to the previous year.
• Kalshi emphasizes it is not a sports betting platform.

Kalshi consistently asserts that it does not operate as a sports betting platform. While opinions among industry analysts may vary, it’s undeniable that this prediction market powerhouse is making significant strides among U.S. sportsbooks.

In March, Kalshi was ranked as the fourth-largest U.S. sportsbook on an adjusted handle per adult basis, as reported by Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG). This ranking highlights the advantages of yes/no exchanges stemming from the NCAA Tournament. According to EKG’s data, only DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics surpassed Kalshi in the third month of the year.

As illustrated in the above chart, Kalshi surpassed noted sportsbook operators like BetMGM, Bet365, and Caesars Sportsbook in March. Even as Kalshi and similar prediction market firms aim to present themselves as more than just alternatives to conventional sportsbooks, it is noteworthy that the largest U.S. yes/no exchange has risen five spots in the rankings compared to last year, as indicated by EKG.

Attention to Detail

Examining Kalshi’s rise in the sportsbook segment necessitates a detailed look, especially regarding how EKG compiles its data.

The research firm employs an internal metric known as handle-analog, which assesses daily positive changes in open interest, execution prices, and activity patterns on resolution days analyzed across millions of market-level data points. These metrics differ from the conventional market share figures common in the sports wagering sector. Moreover, Kalshi and its competitors benefit from partnerships.

“Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Polymarket U.S. adjusted handle-per-adult figures reflect both organic activity and partner-driven volume (e.g., Robinhood, Coinbase, Underdog, PrizePicks, DraftKings) and are therefore not directly comparable to standalone OSB operators,” stated EKG.

In essence, Kalshi’s trading volume for sports event contracts is amplified by collaborations with firms like Coinbase Global and Robinhood Markets, wherein traders on these platforms are engaging with Kalshi contracts.

Significance of Prediction Markets in Sports Betting

While prediction markets strive to downplay their involvement in sports betting, data reveals that sports derivatives constitute a significant portion of the transaction volume on these exchanges. In addition, platforms like Kalshi have become favorable venues for sharp bettors who may have encountered restrictions from traditional sportsbooks.

Conversely, numerous surveys indicate that recreational bettors tend to favor established platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel over prediction markets when given a choice. Nevertheless, data suggest that prediction markets are carving out a niche in the online sports betting landscape (OSB).

“U.S. sports prediction markets have reached an estimated ~$2 billion in monthly Handle-Analog, accounting for 11% of the combined U.S. OSB handle and prediction market Handle-Analog as of March 2026, according to our estimates,” stated EKG. For the entire calendar year of 2026, we forecast U.S. Handle-Analog to increase to approximately ~$34 billion, representing around ~20% of the trailing 12-month U.S. OSB handle.”