Published on: May 23, 2026, 07:48h.

Updated on: May 23, 2026, 07:48h.

• Max Holloway favored at -500 for UFC 329 matchup against Conor McGregor at several sportsbooks
• McGregor’s last appearance in the Octagon was five years ago, resulting in a defeat to Dustin Poirier
• Holloway recently competed in March, facing a unanimous decision defeat to Charles Oliveira

Oddsmakers are favoring Max Holloway significantly ahead of his upcoming UFC 329 clash with Conor McGregor in July. This is largely attributed to McGregor’s age and ongoing injury challenges.

Five Years Away from the Octagon

As noted by Mārtiņš Korulis, Sportsbook Manager at TonyBet, the current odds position Holloway at -501 and McGregor at +309, emphasizing the concerns regarding McGregor’s inactivity and age.

In his last matchup, McGregor suffered a first-round TKO against Dustin Poirier due to a leg injury sustained near the round’s conclusion.

“McGregor poses a unique challenge for odds makers due to the unpredictability surrounding his return,” Korulis stated. “Despite his star power and finishing ability, we must temper expectations based on recent performances.”

Significant Underdog Status

“His prolonged absence and recovery from a serious injury complicate matters. We must strike a balance and not overly favor McGregor’s legacy,” he continued.

UFC 329 is set for July 11 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

McGregor boasts a professional MMA record of 22-6 and maintains a UFC record of 10-4, achieving unprecedented success in 2016 by becoming the UFC’s first simultaneous two-division champion across featherweight and lightweight categories.

Impressive Betting Volume

Among his most talked-about battles, fans often highlight his historic 13-second knockout of José Aldo at UFC 194 in 2015.

However, Korulis believes McGregor is far removed from that caliber. Since his bout against Poirier, his headlines have mostly stemmed from legal troubles, social media antics, and various business ventures. His net worth is reported to be in the hundreds of millions.

“I’m cautiously optimistic about this matchup. We’ve been close to seeing McGregor’s return several times,” commented Brandon Yaeger, Lead Combat Sports Trader at Caesars Sportsbook. “With two legends in the ring, the excitement is palpable. The main concern will be if McGregor can indicate any return to form, alongside Holloway’s performance. Currently, the line has Holloway at (-400) and McGregor at (+300), with substantial betting action so far.”

BetMGM Reports Strong Interest in McGregor

At BetMGM, the latest odds reflect Holloway at -550 (up from an initial -345) and McGregor at +350 (increased from +250). An impressive 95% of the bets placed so far have been on McGregor, contributing to 99% of the handle.

“In his prime, Conor McGregor was exceptional, but he hasn’t entered the octagon since 2021,” remarked Alex Rella, Trading Manager, BetMGM. “It’s uncertain what version of McGregor will arrive. Conversely, Max Holloway remains a top-tier fighter, and few possess the striking skills to contend with him directly.”

Holloway’s last appearance was in March at UFC 326, where he faced a unanimous decision loss against Charles Oliveira. Oliveira effectively neutralized Holloway’s striking by leveraging his wrestling, keeping Holloway grounded and fatigued. Such a strategy won’t be feasible against McGregor.

Exceptional Striking Skills

According to Korulis, Holloway is a safer bet. His consistent activity and reliability make him a preferred choice, especially if the encounter extends beyond the early rounds. Thus, the betting market leans strongly in his direction, underscoring his current form and effectiveness.

Holloway ranks among UFC’s greats, having triumphed over legendary fighters, including Aldo, Justin Gaethje, and Poirier. Notably, Holloway and McGregor previously clashed at UFC Fight Night in 2013, where McGregor secured a unanimous decision victory.

“While the market currently skews in Holloway’s favor, we anticipate McGregor to attract more bets as the fight date nears,” he indicated. “At +309, many casual bettors will perceive value in McGregor’s name, knockout history, and comeback potential. Should he appear sharp heading into the event, expect increased betting volume in his direction.”

“Overall, while Holloway stands as the solid favorite presently, McGregor remains a fighter capable of creating a liability for sportsbooks. The odds reflect the competition’s reality, but betting volume may ultimately hinge on McGregor’s widespread appeal.”