Published on: June 16, 2026, 04:02h.
Updated on: June 16, 2026, 04:11h.
- Cape Verde shocks Spain with a breathtaking 0-0 draw in the World Cup
- Polymarket operator turns a $428,000 wager into an incredible $4.7 million
- Another gambler loses $1 million on a ‘certain’ bet
It’s often stated that no bet is guaranteed to win, yet many believed that a wager on reigning World Cup champions Spain defeating the small, debutant Cape Verde was as close as it gets – or so it seemed.
One trader on Polymarket clearly shared this view, placing a $1 million bet on the expected outcome, believing it would bring an easy $85,000 payout had Spain performed as anticipated.
However, Cape Verde proved to be a formidable opponent. Despite Spain firing 27 shots, with seven on goal, the reigning champions could only manage a scoreless tie against the determined islanders.
The emotional scene of Cape Verde’s 40-year-old goalkeeper, Vozinha, shedding tears at the final whistle may become one of the most unforgettable moments of the tournament.
Cape Verde, a small island nation off West Africa with roughly 500,000 residents, displayed exceptional organization and resilience, demonstrating a level of discipline that contradicted its status as one of the tournament’s lower-ranked teams.
Was This the Biggest Upset? Not Quite
This led The Athletic to question whether this event constitutes “the World Cup’s biggest upset.”
Not necessarily. That title could go to Italy’s 1-0 loss against North Korea in 1966, Argentina’s defeat by Cameroon in 1990, or Brazil’s shocking 7-1 semifinal loss.
Still, not everyone was surprised by the draw. Another Polymarket trader managed to transform a $428,000 bet into a staggering $4.7 million by wagering on Spain not emerging victorious. They say a tie is akin to a friendly kiss—try explaining that to this trader!
What could motivate someone to risk $428,000 on an outcome that, on the surface, seems improbable?
Was the Betting Market Miscalibrated?
The apparent rationale might be that the trader found the odds—set at 9% during the trade—to be inaccurate. Professional gamblers tend to seek out what they consider mispriced odds. While a $428,000 bet against Spain winning seems unwise, seasoned bettors often diversify their portfolios across different markets and hedge their positions elsewhere.
A bet that seems outrageous could actually be part of a larger strategic plan. If they believed Spain’s chances of failing to win exceeded 9%, then it was a lucrative bet in their eyes.
The trader might have had a sharper insight into Cape Verde’s defensive skills and Spain’s tendency to struggle in their initial matches of a tournament.
For instance, during the 2010 World Cup, Spain, as the defending champions, lost their opening match 1-0 to Switzerland before going on to dominate and eventually lift the trophy again.
Despite this setback, Spain continues to be viewed as one of the favorites to win the World Cup, listed at +600 (6/1) on most conventional sportsbooks, while Polymarket gives a slight edge to France at 17% compared to Spain’s 14%.
Despite their remarkable performance, Cape Verde holds a +10,000 (1,000/1) chance to win the tournament.