It’s uncommon for a day to pass without Anthropic making headlines. This leading artificial intelligence company, creator of Claude, was compelled to deactivate two of its top models just three days after their debut earlier this month.

This action followed a government export-control order, rendering Mythos 5 and Fable 5 non-operational. President Trump appears to harbor a personal grudge against Anthropic while he diverts his attention to overturning World Cup penalties.

Fortunately, the Trump administration eventually restored Fable 5 on July 1. However, interest remains high among prediction market traders regarding various Anthropic contracts available on Kalshi and Polymarket.

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The Background of Fable 5 and Mythos 5

Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 were unveiled by Anthropic on June 9 this year. For AI enthusiasts specializing in software development, scientific inquiry, and other intricate tasks, it was akin to Christmas. Unfortunately, the excitement was short-lived, with both models being suspended just three days later due to a government order amid security concerns.

The silver lining for users is that Mythos 5 is now back for public use in the US. However, this incident marks yet another chapter in the ongoing saga between Anthropic and high-ranking White House officials. A number of active Anthropic prediction markets are currently available, so let’s delve into the prevailing probabilities and recent price trends.

Active Anthropic Prediction Markets

Many people are betting on Anthropic’s potential to enter the trillion-dollar club by the conclusion of 2026. It’s no wonder that multiple prediction markets are focused on this AI research organization. Let’s explore further.

Will Anthropic Suspend Fable 5 for US Users?

Amid the recent upheaval regarding Fable 5, it would not be surprising if this model were to be banned again. Prior to July 1, Kalshi traders raised the implied probability of restoration to 58%, which climbed to 74% by July 10 when Fable 5 was reactivated.

Since then, the likelihood of Anthropic disabling Fable 5 before July 10 has dropped from 6% to 1%. In comparison, the chances for July 31 and August 31 have shifted slightly from 9% to 5% and 13.1% to 12%, respectively.

Reports suggest President Trump stated that Anthropic is no longer viewed as a national security threat. However, the unpredictable nature of the former reality TV star means he could easily change his stance.

• Before July 10, 2026: 1% probability (Yes 3¢, No 1)
• Before July 31, 2026: 5% probability (Yes 5¢, No 96¢)
• Before August 31, 2026: 12% probability (Yes 13¢, No 88¢)

When Will Mythos be Publicly Available?

While Fable 5 is accessible to the public, Mythos 5 remains limited to government affiliates and vetted defenders. This is primarily due to its advanced cybersecurity features, which could pose risks for automated attacks and security bypassing. When might a public version of “Mythos” be released? Below are the contract prices noted at the time of writing:

• Before November 1, 2026: 13% probability (Yes 13¢, No 88¢)
• Before December 1, 2026: 17% probability (Yes 17¢, No 84¢)
• Before January 1, 2027: 19% probability (Yes 20¢, No 81¢)

On July 1, Anthropic announced: “Restoration of access will commence tomorrow.” This decision followed a commitment to identify and mitigate security concerns while collaborating with the US Government to establish protocols. However, the timeline for this process remains unclear.

When Will Anthropic Go Public?

Speculation is also mounting regarding Anthropic’s preparations for an initial public offering (IPO). A draft registration statement was submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on June 1.

This move could lead to a stock market launch on the Nasdaq or NYSE by the end of the fourth quarter. There appears to be a deliberate strategy to complete this process ahead of OpenAI, securing a strong competitive position among AI companies on Wall Street.

The percentages below indicate that the market does not have a clear preference for any particular outcome.

• Before October 1, 2026: 48% probability (Yes 47¢, No 55¢)
• Before November 1, 2026: 57% probability (Yes 59¢, No 43¢)
• Before December 1, 2026: 62% probability (Yes 35¢, No 41¢)

Which Banks Will Lead Anthropic’s IPO?

As the path to Wall Street gets more intense for Anthropic, early June reports indicated that the company had chosen Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to assist with its public offering. However, without an official declaration, this particular market remains unresolved.

This Kalshi market revolves around determining which bank will serve as the lead underwriter, managing book-running and global coordination for Anthropic’s US IPO prior to January 1, 2028.

• Stifel Financial: 52% probability (Yes 56¢, No 45¢)
• Mizuho: 51% probability (Yes 56¢, No 45¢)
• William Blair: 50% probability (Yes 41¢, No 60¢)
• Raymond James: 49% probability (Yes 38¢, No 63¢)
• Rothschild & Co: 49% probability (Yes 31¢, No 70¢)

Whichever financial institution emerges victorious is likely to be associated with one of the largest public offerings in history, comparable to SpaceX and OpenAI’s confidential listing.

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