Representatives Steven Horsford (D-NV) and Mark Amodei (R-NV) have unveiled the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, a collaborative House bill designed to forbid federally registered trading platforms from offering sports and casino-style event contracts.
This legislation serves as the House counterpart to a Senate initiative spearheaded by Senators John Curtis (R-UT) and Adam Schiff (D-CA), alongside co-sponsor Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), which was introduced earlier in March.
Defining the distinction between hedging and wagering
Prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket provide event contracts that enable users to speculate on outcomes, such as the victor of a sports match, generating income through fees rather than taking the other side of a wager.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates these enterprises, which, according to the bill’s proponents, offer fewer protections for consumers compared to licensed sportsbooks and evade state gaming taxes. Currently, these operators are barred from issuing contracts in Nevada due to ongoing legal disputes.
The proposed law would forbid sports and casino-style event contracts on federally regulated exchanges, while allowing the CFTC to retain oversight of alternative hedging mechanisms, such as weather and economic contracts.
The bill also contains a provision clarifying that federal law does not override state or tribal jurisdiction over gaming, aiming to clarify jurisdiction through legislation rather than CFTC regulations and the resulting court battles.
“When it resembles sports betting, operates like sports betting, and profits from sports betting, then it must comply with the same regulations as every other sportsbook,” Horsford informed The Nevada Independent in an interview. “No matter which application a consumer uses, they deserve equal protection, which is the gold standard of regulation that Nevada has been founded upon, and we are committed to safeguarding it.”
In a separate announcement regarding the bill, Horsford stated that the ultimate aim of the legislation is to safeguard employment, consumer rights, and the integrity of Nevada’s gaming sector, which he lauded as “the benchmark for gaming regulations.”
“These firms are taking advantage of a federal loophole that enables them to effectively bypass state oversight that every other legitimate sportsbook must adhere to,” noted the representative. “They have already cost states upwards of $1 billion in lost gaming tax revenues—resources that should be allocated to education, infrastructure, and essential programs.”
“Control over gaming policy has historically resided with the states and tribes, not with unelected federal regulatory bodies,” Amodei stated. “This bipartisan bill addresses a federal loophole that permits sports betting to masquerade as financial trading while ensuring that genuine event contracts remain under the CFTC’s supervision.”
Industry implications and betting trends
Data indicates that prediction market operators’ business models are heavily dependent on sports contracts, which can represent up to 90% of their trading volume, even though they assert that they are not classified as gambling since they do not profit from losing bets.
Estimates suggest that prediction markets accounted for more than 25% of all sports betting during the World Cup. Meanwhile, Nevada sportsbooks reported their lowest Super Bowl betting figures in a decade this year.
State-regulated gaming contributes over a third of Nevada’s total revenue and has increasingly become a significant revenue source for other states as well.
The American Gaming Association (AGA), UNITE HERE, and the Culinary Workers Union Local 226 are supporting the legislation.
AGA President and CEO Bill Miller emphasized that the bill “reinforces Congressional intent that gaming should be governed by state and tribal law,” characterizing the House and Senate measures as a “bipartisan and bicameral effort to protect consumers, maintain state and tribal authority over gaming regulations, and prevent so-called ‘prediction markets’ from facilitating backdoor sports betting that drains billions of dollars in tax revenue from local communities nationwide.”
UNITE HERE President Gwen Mills stated that prediction market gambling “is jeopardizing the livelihoods of over 100,000 UNITE HERE members employed in tribal and commercial casinos across the country,” urging Congress to “explicitly prohibit prediction market sports betting and casino gaming while reaffirming that gaming is governed by tribal and state authorities.”
Culinary Union Secretary-Treasurer Ted Pappageorge mentioned that prediction markets “put the jobs of 60,000 Culinary Union members at risk working at casino resorts on the Las Vegas Strip, in Downtown Las Vegas, and in Reno,” expressing gratitude to Schiff, Cortez Masto, and Curtis for their contributions to the Senate’s supporting bill.
Sen. Schiff argued that sports prediction contracts represent sports bets “but under a different name”, contending that the CFTC has been “approving these markets and even encouraging their proliferation” instead of enforcing existing laws.
Sen. Curtis noted that the bill aims to tackle concerns regarding young people’s exposure to “addictive sports betting and casino-style gaming contracts that should be managed under state authority, not federal regulators.”
CFTC’s Position and Alternative Proposals
CFTC Chairman Mike Selig defended the commission’s jurisdiction over prediction market regulations in a statement from February, and the commission recently proposed a rule that would allow sports contracts nationwide, a move Horsford criticized for leaving a “backdoor” open for sports betting even in states where such bets are illegal.
When the Senate bill was presented, Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour took to X, labeling the effort as the “casino lobby working hard.”
The Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act is among several legislative proposals targeting the sector. Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) has introduced the Fair Markets and Sports Integrity Act, which seeks to ban similar contracts but does not have a Republican co-sponsor or explicit provisions concerning state authority.
Reps. Blake Moore (D-UT) and Salud Carbajal (D-CA) have put forth the Event Contract Enforcement Act, which aims even further by banning contracts related to elections, terrorism, warfare, and assassinations.
Horsford expressed that the more focused nature of his bill could enhance its prospects for passing. “I am confident that we will effectively advocate for why this targeted, bipartisan legislation deserves to advance,” he stated. “In conversations with colleagues on both sides, they recognize this as a significant issue.”
Horsford is also a co-sponsor of H.R. 7004, the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act, which would prohibit federally elected officials and government employees from leveraging insider information to bet on prediction market contracts.