Last month, the average daily volume (ADV) in U.S. prediction markets approached $2 billion, reaching $1.91 billion, as reported by Jefferies.
Reflecting the impact of the World Cup, turnover on all-or-nothing platforms increased by 9% month-over-month. This suggests that as the tournament progressed into its knockout stages, prediction market activity surged, even in light of the U.S. team’s exit in the Round of 16. Notably, there are indications that several emerging operators experienced a rise in their transaction volume last month.
“Other platforms we monitor recorded an average daily volume of $161 million (-6% m/m; +26,588% y/y), resulting in a market share that decreased to 8% of the overall industry ADV (down from 10% in June),” states Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon. “Particularly, Rothera, which launched in June, reported $70 million total ADV (+24% m/m), capturing 3.7% of industry ADV (compared to 3.2% in June). It’s important to highlight the week-to-week fluctuations, with ADV peaking at $137 million for the week ending 6/26 (6.2% of total market ADV), then falling to $8 million for the week ending 7/31 (0.5% of total market ADV) as World Cup contracts expired.”
Rothera is a collaboration between Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) and Susquehanna International Group. This prediction market functions independently from the brokerage, although Robinhood had indicated that it would route trades associated with the World Cup through Rothera ahead of the event.
Rise in Non-Sports Activity on Prediction Markets
The dynamics of July’s sports and non-sports exchanges could have been influenced by the World Cup, making the observed growth in non-sports turnover even more notable, even though open interest (OI) in those areas decreased last month.
“In terms of product distribution, sports ADV saw a month-over-month growth of +12%, climbing to $1.333 billion, while non-sports grew by +5% month-over-month to $424 million in July,” adds Fannon. “Consequently, the sports share of total ADV increased to 76% in July (up from 67% in June). For OI, sports maintained a 73% share of the total OI, a slight dip from 75% in June. Sports OI stood at $1.16 billion (-28% m/m; +5,736% y/y) in July, whereas non-sports OI was $423 million (-22% m/m; +1,247% y/y).”
As the midterm elections in 2026 approach in about three months, it is likely that non-sports activity in prediction markets will see an upward trend. However, the substantial effect of the World Cup on volume cannot be overlooked.
“In June and July, the prediction market sector experienced a significant surge in activity thanks to the 2026 FIFA Soccer World Cup,” notes Fannon. “This event produced a staggering $20 billion in prediction market volume according to Chainanalysis, marking it as the most substantial event in prediction market history, far surpassing the $3.6 billion associated with the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, the previous record-holder.”
A Busy July Beyond Volume
Beyond the notable volume increase, July was also marked by significant activity in the prediction market industry, especially regarding deals and partnerships.
For instance, Fanatics announced its acquisition of a regulated exchange and clearinghouse from BGC Group (NASDAQ: BGC), which will enable the company to manage its exchange operations internally, and there are rumors (yet to be confirmed) of a possible partnership between Crypto.com and Robinhood.
The month wrapped up with a major announcement on July 30, when IG Group (LON: IGG) declared a $1.3 billion deal to acquire Underdog, which is swiftly climbing the ranks among U.S. prediction market players.