U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), commonly referred to as AOC, has emerged as the leading contender in prediction markets for the Democratic nomination in the 2028 presidential election.
Ocasio-Cortez has been in the spotlight since her appearance on ABC’s “This Week” on August 9, where she hinted at a potential presidential bid for 2028 during an exchange with host Jonathan Karl. The New York Democrat has also garnered attention for her recent decision to freeze her eggs and her breakup with long-time partner and ex-fiancé Riley Roberts.
Legislatively, Ocasio-Cortez partnered with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) to reintroduce the Green New Deal for Public Housing Act on August 6.
This surge in visibility has captured the interest of prediction market investors, who have been actively purchasing contracts for AOC to become the Democratic nominee in 2028. However, current polling data does not support this trend.
AOC’s 2028 Odds
At Polymarket, AOC’s stock has demonstrated significant growth over the past month.
As of 11:15 a.m. EST on August 13, AOC’s shares reflecting her chances of securing the Democratic presidential nomination are trading at an implied rate of 19%, priced at 19 cents each. This marks an increase from just 14 cents a month prior.
In contrast, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), previously viewed as the favored candidate, has seen a drop in his stock value. Newsom’s shares for the 2028 election fell from 20 cents a month ago to 17 cents recently.
Senator John Ossoff (D-Ga.) holds the third position at 15 cents, followed by former Vice President Kamala Harris at seven cents. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (D) round out the top five, both trading at five cents each.
The current polls present a conflicting narrative compared to the prediction markets.
The RealClearPolitics (RCP) consensus average indicates that Harris is the clear favorite for the Democratic ticket. The RCP average shows Harris leading by 12.5 points over Newsom, who is her nearest rival.
AOC lags behind Harris by a substantial 20 points; however, it’s notable that the polls included in this average were collected before Ocasio-Cortez suggested a possible White House run to Karl.
2028 GOP Ticket
On the Republican front, the race for the 2028 ticket appears to be a duel between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Despite a recent setback with Vance’s stock plummeting by 13 cents, he remains the frontrunner, with Polymarket shares currently valued at 43 cents. Rubio’s shares have begun to rise, but he currently sits behind at 23 cents. No other Republican candidate has implied odds exceeding 5%.
Polling data supports the prediction markets concerning the GOP race. The RCP average reveals Vance with an 18.2-point advantage over Rubio, with scores of 39.8 to 21.6.