Planning for the 2028 Presidential Election is already underway, despite the focus on the upcoming November midterms in the news cycle.
Market speculation on the next US President has reached over $702.6 million in volume on Polymarket currently.
There are contracts available for over 50 candidates, including names like JD Vance, Gavin Newsom, and Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson. Interestingly, you can even invest in incumbent President Donald Trump at 2.5¢, despite the constitutional restriction on a third term.
Wondering about the best picks in this market? Here’s an analysis of the top contenders and trading strategies.
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How to Trade the 2028 Presidential Election Market on Polymarket
The 2028 US Presidential election is set for Tuesday, 7th November. The market will be settled post-election, once the final outcome is known.
Predicting the winner is challenging, especially as the final Republican and Democrat candidates are yet to be revealed, with primaries scheduled for January 2028.
To navigate this market effectively, focus on finding undervalued outcomes and flipping positions for short-term gains rather than holding until settlement.
There are undervalued contenders, particularly among the Democrats, who are favored in the political landscape. Traders on Polymarket give Democrats a 60% chance of winning the election and a 50% chance of controlling the Senate and House after the midterms.
Josh Shapiro Odds – Democratic Favorite With Great Potential
“Josh Shapiro” | “Yes” at 3.3¢ | 3% Chance
Josh Shapiro, 53, epitomizes the ‘Blue Wave’, currently set to win the Governor of Pennsylvania race. His landslide victory in the midterms is projected to be between 50% and 55% by current polls.
Polymarket traders give Shapiro a 97% chance of reelection, which would boost his national profile and electability.
Shapiro’s commitment to the Governor race has kept him undervalued in the Presidential market due to his narrow focus. A strong midterm win will raise his visibility, increasing his price before the end of 2026. With a $30 million+ war chest, he can easily build a national campaign.
Shapiro leads the center-left faction of the Democrat Party, known for its pragmatism and electability. Buying undervalued “Yes” shares at 3.3¢ now and planning to sell post-midterms is advised.
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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Odds – Progressive Left Leading Contender
“Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez” | “Yes” at 13.3¢ | 13% Chance
While the center-left Democrats are top contenders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez remains the progressive wing’s strongest candidate.
Expected rivals like Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, and Andy Beshear could split votes during the primaries, giving AOC an edge.
As a vocal leader of progressive Democrats, AOC’s 20% chance of nomination and strong primary performance enhance her likelihood of Presidential success, beyond the current 13% odds.
Investing in AOC at 13.3¢ now could provide substantial returns as she secures a primary spot.
Marco Rubio Odds – Republican Stalwart and JD Vance Hedge
“Marco Rubio” | “Yes” at 8.6¢ | 9% Chance
Republican Vice President JD Vance leads the market at 25%, with a $24.9¢ price tag that offers limited growth potential and is reliant on the current administration’s performance.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio holds unique advantages, thanks to his focus on foreign policy and favorable polling against leading Democrats.
Rubio’s appeal to Hispanic voters boosts his electability, and he carries a 20% chance of securing the Republican Presidential nomination. With a 32% probability as the Vice President nominee, Rubio is set to be a key contender in the primaries.
Invest in Rubio at 8.6¢ for a potential price surge closer to the primaries. While not expected to win, the 9% win probability and positive EV make him a strategic pick.
Ron DeSantis Odds – Strong Support From MAGA Base
“Ron DeSantis” | “Yes” at 2.4¢ | 2% Chance
Ron DeSantis is often overlooked due to his previous unimpressive primary campaign in 2024, earning only 1.59% of the vote.
However, DeSantis enjoys strong conservative and MAGA support, especially after endorsing Trump in 2024 and his fundraising efforts for the GOP.
With a 57% approval rating, higher than Trump, and term limits in Florida pushing him to launch a national campaign in 2028, DeSantis has potential to grow his candidacy.
At 47, DeSantis is a younger contender with strong ideological backing, making his 2.4¢ price a valuable investment.
The Last Word – Trading a Long-Term, Volatile Market
Trying to predict a long-term market like the 2028 US Presidential Election can be dicey in trading strategy terms.
The broad field and lack of concrete data make accurate forecasting challenging. Holding your capital for the full term until 2028’s end can also be a risk.
Consider buying undervalued contracts like Josh Shapiro or Marco Rubio and plan a strategic exit point as the market ebbs and flows. Use our CORG promo code on Polymarket to get a $20 trading bonus when you register and deposit $10 to take advantage of these trades.