The NFL has reiterated its stance on prediction markets, urging them to cease offering sports event contracts that are susceptible to manipulation, insider information, or other threats to game integrity.
In a letter to federally regulated designated contract markets (DCMs) sent on Thursday, NFL Chief Compliance Officer Sabrina Perel expressed concern that exchanges were still listing contracts that the league had flagged as problematic in the past.
“It is deeply concerning that bets within the objectionable categories that we identified months ago have been and continue to be listed as contracts on exchanges,” Perel wrote in the letter.
First Pass, Missed Field Goal Markets
Contracts that the NFL deems easy to manipulate include predictions on a kicker missing a field goal, a quarterback’s first pass being incomplete, a receiver’s first target being incomplete, and a running back gaining fewer than a specified number of yards on their first carry.
The league also opposes markets related to broadcast mentions and celebrity attendance, as these outcomes could potentially be influenced by a single individual.
Another category involves information that could be known by insiders before it becomes public, such as the first play of a game, starting lineups, trades, coaching decisions, live markets on individual NFL Draft picks, and more.
The NFL also discourages contracts involving player injuries, player misconduct, fan safety, penalties, replay decisions, and officiating outcomes.
The league has previously advised state-regulated sportsbooks against accepting wagers that are deemed susceptible to manipulation or insider information. It initially raised similar concerns with prediction-market operators in March.
CFTC Weighs Restrictions
The NFL’s intervention coincides with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) considering new rules regarding sports event contracts.
In proposals released in June, the CFTC indicated that traditional markets based on game results, point spreads, and player or team statistics would generally not pose public-interest concerns, with appropriate safeguards in place.
However, the agency took a different stance on certain markets highlighted by the NFL.
The league believes that contracts based on player injuries could lead to financial incentives and expose confidential medical information, while contracts tied to officials’ decisions could raise manipulation concerns due to their dependence on a small number of individual decisions.
Prediction markets have emerged as competitors to traditional sportsbooks by offering contracts on sporting events as federally regulated exchanges, distinct from gambling businesses subject to state sports betting laws.
This has led to legal disputes across the country regarding state regulation of sports contracts as gambling activities.
The NFL has warned exchanges that continuing to offer contested contracts not only jeopardizes game integrity but also poses risks to players, coaches, officials, and prediction-market participants.
“It is imperative that DCMs take further action to remove any objectionable bets,” Perel wrote.