Americans are projected to legally bet $29.5 billion on the 2026 NFL season through regulated commercial sportsbooks, as per the American Gaming Association (AGA). The AGA cautions that the growth in the legal market is slowing down due to the expansion of prediction markets.
The estimate remains consistent with the $29.4 billion wagered in the previous NFL season. The season kicks off on Sept. 9 with a Super Bowl rematch between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks in Seattle.
Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legal sports betting has steadily increased. However, AGA President and CEO Bill Miller noted that the proliferation of prediction markets is impeding that growth.
“We’re looking forward to the start of the NFL season, as are millions of fans eager to connect with their favorite teams. Since the lifting of the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legalized sports betting has seen significant growth,” Miller stated. “But this year is different. With the widespread introduction of underground sports betting on so-called ‘prediction markets,’ the growth of legal wagers has plateaued,” he added.
The AGA highlighted that prediction markets offer sports-related contracts in all 50 states and Washington, DC, including areas where sports betting is not yet legal. Sports wagers make up about 80% of market leader Kalshi’s volume, with an estimated $5.1 billion coming from users aged 18-20.
The AGA disclosed that prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have siphoned over $1.3 billion in potential state gaming tax revenue since 2025. Meanwhile, regulated gaming sustains 1.8 million jobs and generates approximately $18 billion annually in sports betting tax revenue, according to the association.
The prediction sector is facing legal battles on whether sports-event contracts should be regulated as financial products under federal oversight or as wagers governed by state gambling laws, a dispute that could reach the U.S. Supreme Court.
Miller also cautioned that prediction markets could leave consumers without the protective measures available in regulated sports betting, misleading them by promoting sports wagers as investments rather than entertainment.