Forecast Markets Are Influencing Sports Wagering

By Blog


The impact of prediction markets on sportsbooks is expected to be revealed during the NFL and college football seasons.

prediction markets football season NFL
Dallas Goedert #88 of the Philadelphia Eagles catches a touchdown against Quan Martin #20 of the Washington Commanders in the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field on Sept. 13, 2026, in Philadelphia. Prediction markets are expected to cut into sports betting this football season. (Image: Getty)

Since prediction markets started trading events related to sports outcomes in 2025, the gaming industry has been concerned about these financial exchanges taking customers away from sportsbooks. With the NFL and college football seasons underway, the impact of prediction markets on sportsbooks will become clearer.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell shares of sports outcomes, like predicting the winner of a game. The American Gaming Association (AGA) is worried that prediction markets are harming sportsbooks and could lead to a slowdown in legal NFL betting for the first time since 2018.

The AGA President called sports prediction markets “backdoor sports betting” and warned that they are misleading customers by marketing sports wagers as investments.

With the NFL season in progress and college football season underway, September will provide more insights into the impact of prediction markets on sports betting.

Decline in New York

New York, the largest sports betting state, saw a record $26.3 billion in bets in 2025, with sportsbooks keeping $2.55 billion. However, the state collected $1.32 billion in tax revenue from sports gambling in 2025, which could be threatened by the rise of prediction markets that avoid state gaming taxes.

New York experienced strong sports betting growth until August, when handle dropped by 15.3%, indicating a potential decrease in betting activity post-World Cup.

Mobile oddsmakers in New York took $1.73 billion in wagers in August, $313 million less than the previous year. This decline could be due to sports betting fatigue after the World Cup.

New Jersey, another top sports betting state, also saw a decrease in handle through July.

Prediction Market Activity

During the first NFL Sunday of the season, prediction markets experienced record volume with over $5 billion in contracts traded over the weekend, making it the biggest trading days for prediction markets in history.



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