Following a string of 52-week lows in recent weeks, Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) stock has experienced a 29.23% year-to-date decline due to various factors.
In a recent report to clients, JPMorgan analyst Daniel Politzer notes that in Macau, which is Wynn’s largest market by earnings and revenue, “post-World Cup demand rebound appears short-lived.” This is evident from data showing a 1.2% drop in gross gaming revenue (GGR) in August in the Chinese casino enclave.
“Macau industry GGR has been softer than expected post World Cup,” observes the analyst.
The World Cup, which concluded in July, was previously viewed as a hindrance to Macau GGR in June and July. There was hope that the tournament’s end would revitalize the world’s largest casino market, but that hasn’t happened. The softness in August continued into September, according to some sell-side firms.
Iran War Still Affecting Wynn Stock
Wynn had previously cautioned investors that the war in Iran would cause a minor delay to construction at Wynn Al Marjan Island, the operator’s $5.1 billion casino resort in Ras Al Khaimah, UAE.
Despite recent assurances that the venue will open in mid- to late-2027, concerns persist among investors due to ongoing conflicts in Iran, as noted by Politzer.
The analyst highlighted concerns around the timeline for opening Wynn Al Marjan Island, potential performance issues upon launch, and ramp-up challenges due to the Iran war.
Some investors are not assigning much value to the UAE project, indicating that geopolitical tensions are overshadowing the potential impact on Wynn’s stock price in the long term.
Wynn Stock’s Valuation
Despite a recent 17% drop in Wynn stock, it is not considered cheap from a valuation standpoint. Politzer notes that the gaming equity is trading at 9.7x estimated 2027 enterprise value to EBITDA, only slightly below the three-year average of 9.8x.
Macau remains a key concern for the stock, with CLSA projecting a modest 2.4% increase in Macau GGR next year.
“Although there was notable recovery in Macau’s GGR and visitations after the World Cup, we do not think macros are supportive enough to drive incremental growth from the current revenue run-rate, despite cyclical factors such as low base effect in summer 2026 (due to World Cup) and possible mean reversion in VIP win rates,” according to the research firm.