Posted on: September 29, 2023, 01:56h.
Last updated on: September 29, 2023, 01:56h.
Heading into the final weekend of the MLB regular season, three teams are competing for the last two spots in the American League Wild Card race, including the Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros, and Seattle Mariners.
The Tampa Bay Rays (97-62) have secured the first AL Wild Card spot, but they will be without ace Shane McClanahan in the postseason due to Tommy John surgery.
The remaining two AL Wild Card spots will be determined in the last three games. As of now, the Blue Jays (88-71) and the Astros (87-72) hold the two spots. The Mariners (86-73) are currently on the bubble, trailing the Blue Jays by two games and the Astros by one game.
The AL West title is still up for grabs, with the first place Texas Rangers (89-70) controlling their own destiny. They have a two-game lead over the Astros and a three-game lead over the Mariners. The winner of the AL West will secure an automatic playoff berth. If the Blue Jays stumble and the Mariners win their weekend series against the Rangers, there is a possibility that the AL West sends three teams to the playoffs.
Blue Jays in a Strong Position
The Blue Jays will finish the season with a three-game homestand against the Rays in a crucial AL East divisional matchup. Both teams have a 5-5 record against each other this season.
The Blue Jays currently hold the second AL Wild Card spot. They have a one-game lead over the Astros and a two-game lead over the Mariners. The Blue Jays also have the tiebreaker advantage over the Astros with a 4-3 record against them this season.
The Blue Jays can secure the Wild Card spot with two victories or if the Mariners lose two games.
According to odds of -2000, the Blue Jays are heavily favored to make the playoffs, while their chances of missing the postseason are considered a long shot at +1100. FanGraphs estimates a 93.7% chance for the Blue Jays to qualify for the playoffs.
In terms of winning the AL pennant, the Blue Jays are considered a long shot with +800 odds. Their odds to win the World Series are +1800. The Blue Jays are aiming to win their first championship since their back-to-back victories in 1993, when they defeated the Philadelphia Phillies with a walk-off home run by Joe Carter in Game 6.
Astros Defending World Series Title
The Astros currently sit in second place in the AL West, trailing the first-place Texas Rangers (89-70) by two games. The Rangers, who lost veteran pitcher Max Scherzer to a muscle injury, can secure the division title with two victories or two losses by the Astros.
The Rangers are the favorites to win the AL West with odds of -750, while the Astros have odds of +900 to clinch their third consecutive division crown.
The Astros will face the Diamondbacks (84-75) in a three-game series in Arizona this weekend. The Diamondbacks are currently in a National League Wild Card spot, which is not guaranteed, making them part of a competitive NL Wild Card race as well.
The Astros have odds of -255 to make the playoffs and defend their World Series title. If the Mariners perform well this weekend, the Astros’ odds to miss the playoffs are +210. According to FanGraphs, the Astros have a 76% chance of securing a trip to the playoffs.
With odds of +650, the Astros are considered contenders to win the AL pennant. They have reached the ALCS in each of the last six seasons, aiming for a third consecutive title. In the past six postseasons, they have won the AL pennant four times.
The Astros are listed at +1300 to win the 2023 World Series, and FanGraphs projects their chances of repeating at 9.8%. The Astros are the defending champions, having won the World Series twice since 2017. They were also runners-up in 2019 and 2021.
Winning the World Series in consecutive seasons is a challenging feat, last accomplished by the New York Yankees with a three-peat in 2001.
Mariners Holding onto Hope
The Mariners had a three-game lead in the AL West but find themselves on the postseason bubble after a disappointing September. They enter the final weekend of the season just one game behind in the AL Wild Card race, trailing the Astros by one game and the Blue Jays by two games.
The Mariners will host the Rangers for a three-game series to end the season, but they have struggled against the Rangers this season with an 8-2 record in 10 divisional games.
If the Mariners manage to sweep the Rangers, they will greatly increase their chances of securing an AL Wild Card berth. They will also be hoping for the Diamondbacks and Rays to defeat the Astros and Blue Jays, respectively, this weekend.
With odds of +150, the Mariners have a chance to make the playoffs, while odds of -180 are available to fade their chances. FanGraphs projects the Mariners to have a 32.9% chance of making the playoffs.
The Mariners joined the AL as an expansion team in 1977 and have only advanced to the playoffs five times in their franchise history, including last year as a Wild Card squad.
The Mariners are considered long shots to win the World Series with odds of +3000, and their odds to win the AL pennant are +1500. The Mariners have never won an AL pennant, making them the only team in MLB history to never appear in the World Series.