Published on: March 29, 2026, 10:49 AM.

Updated on: March 29, 2026, 10:50 AM.

• Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization greenlights Wealthsimple for prediction market trading
• Restrictions on political and sports events persist
• Announcement coincides with U.S. platform Kalshi breaking trading records during March Madness

This week’s announcement from the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) permitting Wealthsimple to launch a prediction market trading platform raises questions: Will Canada see Polymarket-style contracts for sports and political events to rival existing sportsbooks?

Prediction Markets in Canada

In essence, Wealthsimple, a CIRO Investment Dealer Member, is now authorized to offer event contracts focusing on economic projections, including data on employment rates, housing trends, monetary policy, environmental forecasts, and financial metrics.

However, the approval is limited, as a source within the industry noted. No “yes” or “no” contracts regarding political or sporting events will be permitted, akin to platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket—CIRO has drawn a clear line due to Canadian securities laws.

A recent bulletin from CIRO hinted that further limitations might be implemented. Wealthsimple operates out of Ontario, and other provinces may still choose to deny access to its prediction market services. Time will reveal the outcomes of this situation.

No Election Outcome Contracts Permitted

Investment Dealer Members can offer event contracts that mature in 30 days or more. Currently, only two CIRO Investment Dealer Members have been greenlit for trading event contracts, the other being Interactive Brokers Canada Inc.

“If sports and election event contracts are to come to Canada, it’s more likely to occur through provincial gaming regulations rather than securities laws,” remarked Evan Thomas, a lawyer providing guidance to fintech clients on this matter. “However, that’s an entirely different regulatory framework, with its own set of regulators, laws, and objectives.”

Previously illegal in Canada, prediction markets have led consumers to utilize VPNs to access these platforms. Notably, Polymarket faced a ban in Ontario, resulting in a $200,000 fine from the Ontario Securities Commission last April.

In contrast, U.S. prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket offer contracts concerning sports and political scenarios. Governed federally by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), these markets permit participation from users across all 50 states.

Staggering Kalshi Trading Numbers During March Madness

For instance, during the NCAA March Madness basketball tournaments, Kalshi reported a trading volume of $2.3 billion during just the first four days of the men’s tournament, as shared by Yahoo Finance. The platform earned $25 million in fees from these trades.

Debates continue on whether this constitutes gambling or if it’s a regulated financial exchange under CFTC oversight, but participants are betting on the outcomes with “yes” or “no” contracts. This encompasses game winner bets, predictions for advancement round-by-round (currently in the Elite Eight phase), and overall champion forecasts.

In the U.S., several lawsuits involve Kalshi and Polymarket, with states arguing that prediction markets serve as masked sports betting platforms circumventing local gambling regulations, impacting tax revenue. Sports betting is legal in 38 states (plus Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico), yet residents across the nation engage with prediction market platforms.

Canada’s Demand for Betting

Canadian bettors benefit from a range of options provided by both private-sector sports betting companies and provincial platforms, coupled with a wide array of grey market providers. With the surge in prediction markets, many Canadians are eager to learn when they’ll have similar opportunities available.

Canadians demonstrate one of the globe’s highest appetites for betting.

According to Blask, Canada’s online gambling market reached an impressive Competitive Earning Baseline (a new metric analyzing market position and consumer behavior) of USD $9.5 billion in 2025.

This positions Canada as the third-largest market behind the United States and the United Kingdom, with Blask highlighting a notable year-over-year growth rate among the top five markets globally.

Potential for Sports Event Contracts in Canada

As Thomas elucidated, Canada lacks a federal regulator like the CFTC with exclusive authority over event contracts. Both securities and gaming regulations operate at a provincial level, which negates any preemption arguments.

Legal Challenges for U.S. Platforms

However, observers of this evolving scenario must acknowledge the potential challenges, Thomas warned. Legal clarity regarding compliance with the Criminal Code and existing iGaming frameworks is essential. Amendments to statutes or regulations at both federal and provincial levels might be necessary, as provinces will need to establish expertise to manage exchange-traded contracts that entail different risks compared to traditional sportsbooks.

“There is also a strategic angle for major U.S. platforms,” he added. “These companies are investing significant legal resources to argue that their offerings are federal financial derivatives, not gaming. Pursuing provincial gaming registration in Canada could undermine the argument they’re currently making in U.S. courts. Even if a Canadian regulatory framework was available to them, they might hesitate to take that step while the U.S. preemption issues remain unresolved,” he concluded.

Nonetheless, he noted that the interest in prediction markets within Canada is palpable, and regulators and policymakers are closely observing these developments, making it plausible for this market to evolve over time.