Published on: January 21, 2026, 02:32h.
Updated on: January 21, 2026, 02:35h.
- Fanatics’ trader believes the Broncos have the potential to upset the Patriots this Sunday.
- Watch out for Seahawks’ running back Kenneth Walker as a key player in prop bets.
- The Rams-Seahawks game shows a line around Seahawks -2.5.
Are you a Denver Broncos supporter today? While you should be thrilled that your team is hosting the Conference Championship on Sunday against the New England Patriots, there’s also the sting of losing your star quarterback.
Bo Nix suffered a broken ankle just moments before the conclusion of the Broncos’ dramatic 33-30 overtime victory over the Buffalo Bills last Sunday. The Broncos will now rely on backup Jarrett Stidham, who will make his first start at quarterback since Week 18 of 2023 (this will be just his fifth career start, the least for a quarterback in a Conference Championship game in NFL history).
Stidham was the first free-agent signing for Sean Payton as head coach of the Broncos. Payton expresses confidence in Stidham’s abilities, but it remains a challenging situation as the team adjusts to his leadership.
Patriots Scheduled as Betting Favorites
The AFC Championship clash between the Patriots and Broncos kicks off at 3 p.m. EST on Sunday, followed by the NFC Championship featuring the L.A. Rams at Seattle against the Seahawks at 6:30 p.m. The victors will compete in the Super Bowl on February 8 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA at 6:30 p.m.
Current odds at DraftKings show the Patriots at -258 on the moneyline, the Broncos at +210; with the spread set at Patriots -5.5 (-105), Broncos +5.5 (-115), and Over/Under at 42.5 (-108) and 42.5 (-112). For the NFC game, the Rams sit at +130 while the Seahawks are at -155; spread is Rams +2.5 (-105), Seahawks -2.5 (-115), with an Over/Under of 46.5 (-115) and 46.5 (-105).
Despite the odds, there’s potential for an upset in the Broncos matchup, as noted by Ethan Useloff, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook.
“With over a week of preparation for Jarrett Stidham at the helm, Sean Payton has a great opportunity to utilize his expertise in game planning,” he remarked. “He’s proven to be one of the best in football at managing preparations, especially in the past fifteen years. I anticipate the Broncos will be well-prepared.”
Broncos Present Strong Underdog Betting Opportunity
“That’s why I wouldn’t dismiss the Broncos competing against New England at home. Their offensive style (from a tactical standpoint) could yield sufficient results from Stidham to potentially clinch the game. The Broncos boast one of the strongest offensive lines and their defense is well-equipped to generate turnovers,” he added.
“The outcome will largely hinge on whether Mike Vrabel and his defense can pressure Stidham in circumstances he hasn’t faced in years. Bettors will be closely monitoring this situation, and we must prepare adequately from an odds-making perspective.”
Stidham’s Return to Starting QB
Useloff noted that Fanatics is witnessing considerable betting activity favoring the Patriots. Public trust in Stidham may not mirror Payton’s optimistic outlook expressed during his recent press conference. The line has fluctuated—starting at six, then dropping to 4.5.
“Public sentiment is skeptical regarding Stidham and the Broncos, despite their home advantage. Still, the line has stabilized at 4.5 for the past few hours,” he stated. “In the Rams-Seahawks matchup, we have seen a surge of betting on Seattle to win and cover that line, which has consistently hovered around 2.5.”
Highlight on Player Prop Bets: Kenneth Walker
Useloff pointed out that the stakes are tighter when it comes to odds-making in these games—the implications of third downs and turnovers are magnified. It’s all or nothing.
On the prop bets side, he expressed enthusiasm about Kenneth Walker, the Seahawks’ running back, particularly with Zach Charbonnet sidelined for the season due to a knee injury.
As of yesterday, Walker was favored at -180 on Fanatics to score a touchdown at any point in the game.
Darnold’s Struggles with Interceptions
“Walker is set for a significant number of carries and goal line chances, which makes him an enticing prospect for bettors,” said Useloff. “Moreover, he’s heading toward free agency after this season, presenting him with a fantastic opportunity to secure his future contract with the Seahawks.”
However, among the underdogs, Useloff is leaning toward the Rams. He emphasized the turnover ratio in the recent encounters between the two—7:1 favoring the Rams.
“Darnold threw six interceptions against this Rams defense earlier this season,” he continued. “That’s an alarming statistic, especially considering they’ve had an even point differential across the season (the teams split their matchups—Rams triumphed 21-19 on Nov. 16, while Seattle won 38-37 on Dec. 19).”
Red Zone Efficiency
In terms of red zone performance, the Rams converted 3 out of 4 chances in their first meeting, while the Seahawks converted just 1 out of 4. In their second matchup, the Rams converted 3 out of 6, and the Seahawks 2 out of 3. Useloff also highlighted time of possession—Seattle had 38 minutes when they lost, while the Rams held the ball for over 40 minutes in their loss. Clearly, time of possession is not the ultimate predictor of success in this matchup. It will boil down to third down conversions, red zone efficiency, and turnover ratios—all crucial elements that could sway the game.
Moreover, Darnold’s record from last year, when he faltered in a wild card loss as a member of the Minnesota Vikings—sacked nine times, primarily due to holding the ball too long—leaves a significant mark on his legacy and has implications for his departure from Minnesota. This lingering doubt about Darnold’s ability to perform in high-stakes situations adds another layer of uncertainty for bettors, even more than concerns about his recent oblique injury.
“Therefore, if you’re discussing potential surprise underdogs, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Rams pull off a victory,” stated Useloff. “That’s a noteworthy underdog I’d certainly consider backing at the current odds.”