A report reveals more than 150 cryptocurrency wallets on Polymarket’s prediction market platform may have engaged in trading event contracts with nonpublic information about US military operations.
A nonprofit organization called the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) conducted the analysis. The group, based in Washington, DC, focuses on combating corruption worldwide through investigations and research.
The ACDC report, “Classifying Insider Trading Risk,” identifies 152 wallets that primarily trade military event contracts involving US events. These accounts are labeled as “Orcas,” expert bettors who exploit the market for financial gain.
“Swimming through this feeding frenzy are the Orcas, specialized and successful individuals who make strategic moves in the market and often disappear into the blockchain again,” stated the ACDC executive summary.
Military Information
The ACDC claims that Orcas mainly participate in US military events and engage in “longshot” trades. Longshot trades involve shares with probabilities below 35% and values exceeding $2,500 each.
The organization found that military markets on Polymarket have a high success rate for longshot trades, indicating an increased risk of insider trading.
Given the national security implications, investigating these wallets is crucial,” advised the ACDC. “Law enforcement agencies should use their subpoena power to unveil the true identities of these users and identify the real insiders.”
The suspicious Orcas placed trades worth $2 million, winning $8 million with a success rate of 97.2% and an average of $52,514 per wallet.
The ACDC suspects that 648 wallets held by Whales and Bots observed the Orcas’ activity and made strategic trades based on it.
“The study suggests that whales and bots may enter the market after observing insider activities like risky longshot bets by wallets with low activity, similar to Orcas,” concluded the report.
Concerns as White House Backs Prediction Markets
President Donald Trump recently met with crypto and tech leaders, including the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees prediction markets. Trump emphasized the importance of the US leading in crypto and innovative financial markets.
“The individuals in this meeting ensure that the US remains a leader in cryptocurrency and technologies like prediction markets,” stated Trump.
The ACDC’s analysis focused on Polymarket’s international platform, not its US-facing, CFTC-regulated platform.