Published on: October 8, 2025, 01:54h.

Updated on: October 8, 2025, 01:54h.

• Blue Jays compelled to deploy bullpen pitchers for Game 4 tonight
• Yankees buoyed by significant Game 3 victory from dramatic Judge home run
• Yankees favored in betting for Game 4 with rookie Schlittler off an impressive wildcard outing

It was indeed puzzling when the Blue Jays announced their 26-man roster for the American League Division Series versus the Yankees – only three starting pitchers for a best-of-five series. They excluded a certain Hall of Famer – Max Scherzer – along with three other seasoned starters – Chris Bassitt, José Berrios, and Bowden Francis.

Judge Shines Bright

Thus, the Jays opted for 10 relief pitchers, including four left-handed options. This approach was likely influenced by analytics, aimed at tackling a lefty-heavy Yankees lineup and constructing a strategy to pitch around the prominent MVP contender, Aaron Judge.

How did that strategy pan out? Judge, one of the finest hitters globally, smashed a 100-mph fastball deep into left field, hitting it off the foul pole to tie Game 3 at 6-6. This moment energized the 47,399 fans at Yankee Stadium, undermining the confidence that the Jays had built following Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s first-inning home run and a 6-1 lead. This pivotal play shifted the momentum of both the game and the series.

Tonight in Game 4, the Blue Jays will be missing four proficient starters on the bench.

Blue Jays on Defense

The Jays faced some defensive lapses last night, with Isiah Kiner-Falefa misfielding a grounder in the first and a wind-assisted fly ball falling from third baseman Addison Barger in the fourth, both leading to runs for the Yankees.

As Jeff Passan noted on ESPN today, Judge had never previously hit a ball at 100 mph or faster for a home run.

Jays Relying on Bullpen Starters

This situation leaves the Jays in a tough spot, opting to employ a bullpen strategy for Game 4, with the series lead now at 2-1, but the momentum heavily leaning towards the Yankees.

This has certainly shaken up bettors. Confidence wavers as the Jays prepare to start Louis Varland tonight, after he faced an inning last night, where he gave up the Judge home run in the fourth and then a thunderous homer to Jazz Chisholm Jr., sealing the Yankees’ 9-6 victory.

Last night’s events felt reminiscent of two years ago – when the Jays faced the Twins in Game 2 of a wildcard series in Minnesota. Berrios was cruising through three innings on 47 pitches, only to be unexpectedly pulled by manager John Schneider, baffling fans and analysts alike. Schneider seemed to follow some analytic strategy instead of trusting his gut with Berrios’s strong performance. This decision backfired, resulting in a 2-0 loss and forcing criticism along with Berrios’s own confusion.

High-Stakes Decision

“Going with Varland to start and opting for a bullpen game raises eyebrows; it seems Schneider is giving Varland a chance to bounce back after Game 3’s performance. It’s a gamble, and I doubt many bettors are in favor,” commented Phill Gray, the former Head of Trading Operations at Sports Interaction.

“Yankees rank higher than the Jays across all statistical categories, making the Over 8.5 -108 a tempting wager tonight. Can the Jays capitalize on rookie Cam Schlittler to alleviate their pitching woes? He was exceptionally dominant in the Wildcard game against the Red Sox last week and might pitch deeply into the game despite the Yankees’ bullpen issues.”

“Right now, Toronto sits at +143 to win straight up, and that number could climb as the first pitch nears since NY should continue to draw bets both straight up and on the runline, which holds real value – NYY -1.5 +118.”

Betting Odds Ahead of Game 4

Gray highlighted the prevailing trends among bettors: 79% of bets and 58% of the money are backing the Yankees to cover the spread, while 52% of bets and 78% of the money favor the Yankees on the Moneyline.

A quick review shows: With rookie Schlittler on the mound tonight, at ESPN BET, the Yankees are at -180 on the Moneyline, the Jays at +150. The O/U is set at 8.5 at -110, with the Spread at Jays +1.5 (-145) and the Yankees -1.5 (+120) – 56.3% of bets and 65.8% of handle are on Yankees ML -180, and 82.7% of bets and 91.6% of handle are on Over 8.5.

Popular player props at DraftKings include Judge for 1+ Hits, Judge for Total Bases 2+, and Schlittler’s Strikeouts Thrown O/U Under 5.5.

Meanwhile, the Mariners face the Tigers, leading their series 2-1, with a game scheduled today at 3:08 p.m. EST (Mariners -108, Tigers -108, at FanDuel). The Cubs, trailing 2-0 to the Brewers, will play at home at 5:08 p.m. (Brewers -108, Tigers -112 at DraftKings), and the Phillies, looking to avoid elimination, down 2-0, are in Los Angeles to face the Dodgers at 9:08 p.m. EST (Dodgers -186, Phillies +151 at DraftKings). First pitch for Jays-Yankees is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. EST.