Published on: April 22, 2026, 07:52h.

Updated on: April 22, 2026, 07:52h.

• NFL Draft scheduled for 8 p.m. EST Thursday in Pittsburgh, broadcasted live on ESPN and ABC
• Quarterback Mendoza heavily favored at -20000 to be selected by the Vegas Raiders as the No. 1 overall pick
• Bettors are backing Edge Arvell Reese for the first pick

NFL Draft night is always full of excitement for sportsbooks, according to Johnny Avello, Director of Race & Sports Operations at DraftKings.

Is Mendoza the Top Pick?

This Thursday in Pittsburgh promises to be just as thrilling with a flurry of trades and unexpected selections.

The New York Giants made an early move, trading DE Dexter Lawrence to the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. In return, the Giants received the Bengals’ first-round pick, 10th overall, enhancing their draft position with the fifth and tenth selections.

“Navigating this process is challenging,” Avello noted. “Our decision-making is informed by real-time information, so it’s crucial that we stay updated. This year, our preparation is stronger than ever, and we’re ready for in-play betting as we adapt to trades that occur before and during the draft.

Impact of the Lawrence Trade on Betting Lines

“Our team needs to remain vigilant not only on draft day but in the days leading up to it, scanning various sources for breaking insights.”

Betting markets for the NFL Draft were essentially non-existent until about a decade ago, according to Avello.

Reflecting on my experience in different sports, like UFC and college lacrosse, I could establish lines based on exposure and expertise,” Avello explained. “As we continue to develop our methods for the NFL Draft, our lines continue to improve accordingly.

Bettor Favorites: Reese Leads

While predicting the first overall pick can often be uncertain, this year is different: the Las Vegas Raiders appear poised to select QB Fernando Mendoza at the top spot (-20000 at DraftKings).

At theScore Bet, Mendoza has attracted 13.8% of the total bets and commands 51.4% of the betting handle for the top pick. Edge rusher Arvell Reese is generating notable betting interest as the projected No. 2 pick (46.8% of bets, 67.8% of handle); edge David Bailey follows at No. 3 (21.9% of bets, 33.8% of handle), while running back Jeremiyah Love is expected at No. 4 (21.7% of bets, 43.6% of handle), and LB Sonny Styles at No. 5 (11.9% of bets, 26.4% of handle).

“The NFL Draft kickoff this Thursday is highly anticipated, as it brings us closer to the NFL season,” said Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook. “Our trading team has been diligently analyzing the latest rumors and team insights to refine our draft market strategies.

Expect Increased Trade Activity?

We foresaw significant trade activity leading into the draft week, with our first major shift occurring over the weekend when the Bengals traded for Dexter Lawrence from the Giants in exchange for the 10th overall pick. Despite not significantly altering either team’s future odds, it has reshaped various draft-related markets.

Feazel observed that the most significant movements were for wide receivers. Jordyn Tyson’s workout last week attracted attention from over 20 teams, and with the Giants securing another top-10 pick, the market adjusted quickly.

Betting Surge for Tyson

“Following the trade, we noticed a surge of bets on Tyson to be picked within the top 10, resulting in a major shift in his odds from -160 to -375,” stated Feazel.

Avello mentioned that Reese and Bailey are also seeing increased betting traction at DraftKings.

“I predict at least one of the Giants’ picks will focus on defense, possibly also addressing the offensive line,” he said. “It’s intriguing to see how picks two and three pan out. With Bailey and Reese, we’ve received bets on both sides.”

“Mendoza was viewed as the top selection from early on — we had him listed at 40/1 before he solidified his position. Initially, he was a decent long shot but has since emerged as a favorite to go first overall. There’s also been activity for Jeremiyah Love moving into the third spot.”

Insights from BetMGM

Latest reports from BetMGM show Mendoza as the clear favorite to be selected first overall at -10000, with a ticket share of 51.7% and a handle at 54.3%. The largest liability appears to be Ty Simpson. At No. 2, Reese leads at -400, while Bailey ranks highest for ticket share at 21.1%, and Reese holds the highest handle at 37.2%, with Love as the most significant liability.

For the third pick, Bailey is favored at +100, with Love capturing the highest ticket share at 15.8% and the top handle at 31.1%, also being the main liability. Love is the favorite for the fourth position at -135, and Styles is expected to go in the fifth spot at +175.